As part of our weekly series, Get More Sports recently caught up with former NFL player Glenn Gronkowski. Every week during the 2018 season, we’ll produce an exclusive Q&A with Glenn, whose experience, familiarity and connections within the league, its coaches and its players allow him to provide unparalleled insight and analysis.
The information provided in this series can be incredibly valuable to any sports bettor, which is why this is must-read material every week.
In this week’s Q&A, Glenn Gronkowski discusses this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks, home-field advantage, watching film and more.
All odds are subject to change and courtesy of BetDSI.com, which is open to U.S. players and accepts credit cards.
GMS: In Episode 10 of The Gronkcast, you discussed the value of home-field advantage. Bookmakers would say that home field is traditionally worth three points to a spread. In some places it’s less and in others, such as Seattle, it is more. From your playing experience, name one stadium you think offers the best home-field edge.
Related: Chris Gronkowski Q&A’s | Glenn Gronkowski Q&A’s
Gronk: In my opinion, I think a spread should jump six or seven points for home-field advantage. Fans make a big difference in the game. Even changing one play on a drive can change the outcome of punting instead of scoring a touchdown on that drive, so I am surprised it is only three points.
However, I’ve been to a lot of stadiums as a fan and as a player and I still think college is a lot louder than the NFL by far. I think it’s because there are a lot more 18-22 year-olds at college games and they are all boozed up from partying and they get loud and crazy. I think the college atmosphere is much better because NFL games are more family atmospheres where adult bring their kids and tickets are too expensive for younger people to attend and act like idiots.
But, I think its amazing when they do go crazy. It make a huge difference and the loudest stadium I ever played in was Iowa State. We went in there and they were 2-2 I believe and it’s not a big stadium like Texas or other big time schools and you’re not expecting it to be loud at all playing a mediocre team in a decent sized stadium. When that game started they were absolutely insane and I couldn’t even hear the play calls and it continued all game because it was a close game all game long. I’ve never had that experience where I couldn’t hear a play before and it was the only place I’ve ever had that happen in the 40-plus games I played.
I still like to bet Iowa State every time they are playing a big-time team at home because I know that crowd will impact the game as long as the game is close.
GMS: And how about NFL stadiums you think have the best home-field advantage?
Gronk: I think the Patriots have the best home-field advantage for an NFL team. I’m not sure how they do it, but for some reason when your team visits Foxborough, you almost know you’re walking away with a loss.
What’s incredible is that most of these games are played in the freezing cold where usually players hate it and anything can happen because the ball is hard to catch and hold onto, but somehow the Patriots still rarely lose at home.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 7 Odds
I think this might go back to a stat I heard about Tom Brady when I was watching the Patriots game — when they lost to Jacksonville this year the announcers said hes 1-9 in games over 90 degrees. I think Tom just loves playing in the cold and he’s in his element in cold weather because he’s just so use to playing in it since they have home-field advantage every year during the playoffs.
Since Brady has been there, they are winning over 85 percent of their home games, which is insane. Obviously the Patriots win most of the time in the last decade, but most of their losses do come on the road rather than at home. When you walk in that stadium there is just a sense of winning. The culture there is that you are going to win and losing is not an option like it is in other organizations.
GMS: Your NFL picks have been less than stellar this year. How do you plan on righting the ship? Will you adjust your strategy?
Gronk: Yeah, this year has been difficult so far. We have huge underdogs competing with the best teams in the league. Every week it seems like there are huge upsets and no one knows what is going to happen.
Since it looks like every team has a chance in any game this year, I think that it’s time to start picking those underdogs to cover. Usually I only like to bet favorites and this year just isn’t the year to do that.
One of my favorite strategies that I haven’t been using at all this year is to take home, division game, underdogs. Usually in a division game, everyone understands the importance because of the playoff implications and those teams know each other inside and out because they’ve been playing each other year after year, twice a year.
On top of that, you are at home and usually the crowd is hyped up. I might have to start looking for more of these, especially since there should be a lot coming up in the next couple weeks.
GMS: You have sat through countless hours of watching film. How important is it for a football handicapper to watch as many games as possible?
Gronk: As a bettor, I don’t believe watching film is as relevant as it is to a player. As a player you get to see how physical someone plays, or if they are slow with their hands or if their hips are tight and then you can take advantage of those weaknesses using certain moves and techniques.
As a bettor, I think it is more relevant to know the injury reports or average statics for an offense or defense going into a game. I don’t think film and seeing those weaknesses or strengths can really help a bettor make a prediction.
GMS: You’ve had a few weeks to watch Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen (now injured) and Sam Darnold. Which rookie quarterback has been the most impressive in your eyes and which needs the most work?
Gronk: Baker Mayfield has clearly been the best quarterback so far with what he’s done. This guy has done something that 25-plus quarterbacks have not been able to do and that’s turn this Browns program around after decades of misery. He deserves all the credit in the world because a lot of people doubted him and doubted the Browns decisions to take him No. 1 overall. But he’s been confident in his play this whole time and has backed it up on the field as well. I’m excited to see how good he can make this Browns team in the next couple years.
The quarterback I think that needs the most work still is Josh Rosen. I’ve only seen him play in one game, but I’ve seen his stats so far and they pretty much back up the game I’ve watched. He only has a 55 precent completion percentage and has thrown two touchdowns in four games. This is coming from an Arizona team who’s defense is absolutely unreal this year. The defense is making stops, which means Rosen gets plenty of opportunities.
Honestly, I think this Arizona team should be winning more games than they are, but I think the struggles fall on the offense. Rosen’s only broken 200 yards in one of those games and the one I watched really looked like he was not on the same page as any of his players. He’s not going through his progressions and seeing the field clearly at this point.
I think Rosen has some work to do still, but I think its easy mistakes that can be cleaned up by staying late after practice and getting the timing and routes tuned up with his receivers and offense.
GMS: There is talk that the Chargers are revising their revenue goals from $400 million to $150 million, which has owners and the league concerned. Do you think L.A. can sustain two teams? If they were to move, what city might be a good landing spot for the Chargers?
Gronk: That really shocks me to hear that. So far this NFL season has been unbelievable. Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games have, for the most part, been high scoring close games, which fans love. All the other games have been close and any team can win any game right now which makes it interesting. The Browns are even winning games!
I thought this would draw a lot more fans back to the game after what was going on last year with declining revenue and ratings. I think for the Chargers it might just be too difficult to get the market from the Rams who are the hot team in L.A. right now. Both teams arrived in LA and the Rams are the ones who have have the wins and more entertaining games so far. However, I think the L.A. fan base is still getting accustomed to having NFL teams there — especially now that there are two.
With such a big market and millions visiting every weekend, I don’t see a reason why they wouldn’t be able survive in that market.
GMS: The Bills are starting Derek Anderson this week instead of Nathan Peterman. Do you think this is a good decision?
Gronk: Yes I do. I think the Bills have realized Peterman is not their guy and I believe once Allen is healthy [Peterman] is going to be released. This was a draft pick that was taken by the former GM and head coach and I don’t think the Bills current management will have a problem letting him go since he was not their pick.
I also saw on social media the other day that Bills Mafia had started a GoFundMe to raise money so that they could pay the Bills to release Peterman. The end is near for Peterman and there’s no reason for him to be out there with the in-game decisions he’s made so far in his career. I think it’s smart to play Anderson since he will be the backup for the rest of the year and get him acclimated to playing again, just in case he is needed if Allen goes down.
