The 13th Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas, features two high-scoring offenses that will look to outscore their opponent and take the glory back to their respective campuses. Air Force will look to expose the PAC-12’s second worse rushing defense and control the ball on the ground, while wearing the California defense down little by little. Cal will look to reign down its high-flying aerial attack against the Falcons. This will be the second meeting of the two teams in the Armed Forces Bowl. The last time the two met, the Bears overcame a 21-point deficit to beat Air Force 42-36.
Bowl: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Teams: California Bears vs Air Force Falcons
Date/Time: December 29, 2015 – 2 PM EST on ESPN
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Ft. Worth, TX
Vegas Line/Total: Cal -7 / O/U 67
Written by: Erik the Hun
7 – 5 Record – 5 – 7 Vs Spread Over – Under: 4 – 8 11/21/15 @ Stanford L 22-35 L 10 U 63 11/14/15 Oregon State W 54-24 W -21 O 64 11/07/15 @ Oregon L 28-44 L 3.5 U 75.5 10/31/15 USC L 21-27 L 4.5 U 69 10/22/15 @ UCLA L 24-40 L 3.5 U 68.5 10/10/15 @ Utah L 24-30 W 7.5 U 60.5 10/03/15 Washington State W 34-28 L -16.5 U 73.5 09/26/15 @ Washington W 30-24 W -1 U 59.5 09/19/15 @ Texas W 45-44 Week 3 L -5 O 58 09/12/15 San Diego State W 35-7 W -12.5 U 59 09/05/15 Grambling State W 73-14 W -45 O 73 |
8 – 5 Record – 9 – 4 Vs Spread Over – Under: 9 – 4 11/28/15 @ New Mexico L 35-47 L -11 O 53.5 11/20/15 @ Boise State W 37-30 W 10.5 O 55 11/14/15 Utah State W 35-28 W 2 O 50.5 11/07/15 Army W 20-3 W -16 U 50.5 10/31/15 @ Hawaii W 58-7 W -6.5 O 50 10/24/15 Fresno State W 42-14 W -17 O 54 10/17/15 @ Colorado State L 23-38 L -3.5 O 54.5 10/10/15 Wyoming W 31-17 L -21 U 57 10/03/15 @ Navy L 11-33 L 4.5 U 49.5 09/19/15 @ Michigan State L 21-35 W 24.5 O 54.5 09/12/15 San Jose State W 37-16 W -5 U 58 09/05/15 Morgan State W 63-7 W -32.5 O 55.5 |
December 28, 2011 – Holiday Bowl – Cal 10 – 21 Texas December 23, 2009 – Poinsettia Bowl – Cal 27 – 37 Utah December 27, 2008 – Emerald Bowl – Cal 24 – 17 Miami December 31, 2007 – Armed Forces Bowl – Cal 42- 36 Air Force December 28, 2006 – Holiday Bowl – 45 – 10 Texas A&M |
December 20, 2014 – Idaho Potato Bowl – Air Force 38 – 24 W. Michigan December 29, 2012 – Armed Forces Bowl – Air Force 14 – 33 Rice December 28, 2011 – Military Bowl – Air Force 41 – 42 Toledo December 27, 2010 – Independence Bowl – Air Force 14 – 7 Georgia Tech December 31, 2009 – Armed Forces Bowl – Air Force 47 – 20 Houston |
California Outlook:
California won two of their final three games to secure a spot in Fort Worth. The Bears have a potent passing game, with quarterback Jared Goff hoping to cap off a great college career, forgo his senior season and opt for the NFL next year. Cal’s defense has been suspect, but some of those games were due to key injuries to star linebacker Hardy Nickerson, and safety stand-out Damariay Drew, both who are slated to be back and healthy for this game.
Goff broke his own single-season records this year by tossing 37 touchdowns and piling up an impressive 4252 yards. Goff has thrown a school-record 90 touchdowns throughout his career at California. Considering how often the Bears take to the air, Goff’s 13 interceptions is pretty impressive.
The running game in Berkeley is handled by four different backs. Between them, they accumulated 216 attempts for 1780 yards, with 13 touchdowns. Vic Enwere was the scoring leader from this group, raking in seven scores.
Goff wasn’t stingy about distributing the football to his receivers in 2015. Six different receivers caught over 35 passes, for just under 3500 yards (3485), and 32 touchdowns. Bryce Triggs led this group with 813 yards, and had an impressive 19.8 yards a catch, while Kenny Lawler recorded 10 receiving touchdowns.
The Bears defensive struggled throughout the season stopping opposing teams from running the football, ranking 103rd in the country, surrendering 203.5 yards a contest. That could spell problems if the three week layoff preparing for Air Force’s triple option doesn’t improve things. The time between games has helped California get healthy. Hardy Nickerson, Cal’s leading tackler, has recorded 101 tackles this season. The Bears are giving up just over 30 points a game (30.2), so I expect a bend-but-not-break game plan from California, trying to limit the Falcons to some field goals in the red zone.
Air Force Outlook:
Air Force played their way to the Mountain West conference title game, losing to a tough San Diego State team by a field goal. The triple option attack that Air Force imposes on its opponents was an efficient, ball moving machine again in 2015. The 322.1 rushing yards a game, was good for 2nd in the nation. Junior running back D.J. Johnson (82 attempts for 425 yards and 6 TDs) will be out for this match and missed. One thing that has changed for the Falcons this year is the defensive side of the ball, where they have been solid all year long, allowing teams only 23 points a game.
Jacobi Owens was the QB’s first choice in the option attack, with 187 carries for 1013 yards and reaching the end zone on six different occasions. Karson Owens kept the ball on 152 running plays, and recorded 674 yards for another nine rushing touchdowns. Timothy McVey and three other backs carried the football over 40 times. McVey equaled Roberts with nine end zone appearances, but also caught three touchdowns.
Two receivers were the main targets in the passing game. Jalin Robinette and Garret Brown compiled 47 catches for 1106 yards and five touchdowns, but their over 20 yards a catch average proves just how effective play-action is in an offense like the Falcons.
Defensively, Air Force was steady-as-she-goes in their 2015 campaign. The Falcons ranked in the top 25 in yards per game (337.1), good for 23rd in the country, and 24th in the country against the pass, surrendering only 190.4 yards through the air. Senior defensive end Alex Hanson, who was an All-Mountain West selection, collecting 7.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The defense did falter down the stretch a bit, giving up 33 points a game to its opposing offenses.
Matchup Analysis & Prediction
Analysis:
California and Air Force move the ball effectively but in completely different fashions. The Bears will look to spread out the Falcons and torch them through the air, while the Falcons will look to run the triple option down the Bear’s defenses throat. Both teams score a lot of points, and I fully expect this to be the case in the Armed Forces Bowl on Tues, December 29th. Goff will be amped-up for his last game of his college career. Expect plenty of points from the ground and through the air as Air Force and California battle it out in Texas.
Prediction:
To get further analysis from Ej the Rainmaker and Erik the Hun, check out our audio preview of the Armed Forces Bowl using the audio file below…
