The Cleveland Cavaliers (5-18) clash against the Golden State Warriors (16-9) at Quicken Loans Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 5, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Ohio.
Golden State opened as an 11-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223 points.
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Prediction
The Warriors come in on a high note after covering the 11-point spread against the Atlanta Hawks in their last outing, 128-111. The game’s total points (239) finished over the projected point total of 235.5. Golden State’s 0.665 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Atlanta, who had a mark of 0.517. The Warriors’ mark was above their season average of 0.556. Kevin Durant played a pivotal role for Golden State with 28 points, eight assists and five rebounds.
The last time the Cavaliers took the court, they edged the Brooklyn Nets, 99-97, despite being 6-point underdogs. The total points for the game (196) came in under the projected point total of 210. The Cavaliers knocked down 19 of their 20 free throws (95.0 percent) and held the Nets to an effective field goal percentage of 0.444 (below their season average of 0.511). With 19 points and 14 rebounds, Tristan Thompson had a good performance for Cleveland.
The offensive glass could be a major edge for Cleveland in this matchup. The Cavaliers are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking fourth in offensive rebounding percentage at 26.8 percent. Meanwhile, Golden State ranks 15th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 77.2 percent. Also, the Warriors’ second-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 113.7) will face off against the Cavaliers’ 29th-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 111.7).
Golden State has a solid 16-9 straight up (SU) record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (11-14 against the spread (ATS)). Matchups involving the Warriors have typically finished over the total (56.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Cleveland owns records of 5-18 SU and 12-11 ATS. Contrary to Golden State, Cavaliers games tend to finish under the total (60.9 percent).
Durant and Klay Thompson have been playing well over the last five games for Golden State. Durant has averaged 41 points,9.0 rebounds,7.2 assists,1.8 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Thompson has recorded 27 points,5.4 rebounds a game during that span.
After the Warriors won all six matchups against the Cavaliers last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the most recent matchup, Golden State won 108-85. Golden State’s 0.535 effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Cleveland, who had a mark of 0.391.
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Golden State is 4-8 ATS with 8 overs and 4 unders.
Cleveland is 5-6 ATS at home with 7 unders and 4 overs.
In contests where they allow under 100 points, Cleveland is 2-2 and Golden State is 2-0.
The Warriors are 16-5 when they reach the century mark, while the Cavaliers are 4-8.
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (27.8) while Cleveland ranks 28th (19.1).
The Warriors rank third in blocks per game (6.3) while the Cavaliers rank 29th (2.3).
Golden State ranks fifth in fast break points per game (16.8) while Cleveland ranks 26th (10.3).
The Cavaliers rank ninth in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Warriors rank 25th (11.9).
Golden State ranks 20th in three pointers attempted per game (29.4) while Cleveland ranks last (23.3).
The Cavaliers rank 20 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.608695652173914) while the Warriors rank 26 (18.4).
Cleveland is 28 in the NBA with 41.91304347826087 points in the paint per game while Golden State is 29 with 40.88 points in the paint per game.
The Warriors allow the 2-fewest rebounds per game (42.16) while the Cavaliers rank 3 (42.17391304347826).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Cleveland is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 4.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 93.4 points per game (9.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.6 points per game (3.8 below their season average).
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