The Dallas Mavericks (6-8) welcome the league leading Golden State Warriors (12-4) to the American Airlines Center. The game will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 17, 2018.
Golden State is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 216 points.
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
In the Warriors’ last outing, they were thoroughly outplayed by the Houston Rockets, 107-86, and were not able to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (193) finished well under the O/U total of 217. Houston’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Golden State. The Rockets had a rate of 4.8 (better than their season average of 12.2), while the Warriors posted a mark of 15.7. Kevin Durant was Golden State’s high scorer with 20 points on 6-for-15 shooting.
The Mavericks easily got past the Utah Jazz in their last contest, 118-68, despite being 5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (186) came in well under the projected point total of 212. The Mavericks had a phenomenal effective field goal percentage of 0.662 (above their season average of 0.529) and held the Jazz to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.4 (below their season average of 23.4). Harrison Barnes was the game’s leading scorer with 19 points on 6-for-11 shooting from the field.
After the Warriors won all four matchups against the Mavericks last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the last contest, Golden State won 121-103. The Warriors had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (41.9 vs. 21.4) and had a better free throw rate (0.193 vs. 0.152).
Golden State heads into the contest with records of 12-4 straight up (SU) and 8-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is extremely accurate when predicting totals of Warriors games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 6-8 SU and 9-5 ATS. Mavericks games also have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
The aggressive Dallas offense could be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this showdown. The Mavericks rank seventh in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.219, while Golden State ranks 18th in FTA rate allowed (0.212). Also, the sharp-shooting offense of the Warriors ranks first in effective field goal percentage (0.572), while the Mavericks are ninth-worst in the NBA at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.528).
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Golden State is 2-5 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 2 unders.
Dallas is 5-2 ATS at home with 4 unders and 3 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Golden State is 1-0 and Dallas is 3-0.
The Mavericks are 6-8 when they score more than 100 points, while the Warriors are 12-2.
Dallas ranks seventh in three pointers allowed per game (29.6) while Golden State ranks 27th (35.8).
The Warriors average 29.2 assists per game, which ranks first in the league. The Mavericks rank 19th in assists allowed per game (23.9).
Golden State ranks fourth in fast break points per game (18.0) while Dallas ranks 17th in fast break points allowed per game (14.6).
The Mavericks rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (43.3) while the Warriors rank 15th (48.3).
Golden State ranks 17th in steals per game (7.3) while Dallas ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (9.9).
The Mavericks rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while the Warriors rank 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.8).
Golden State allows the second-fewest blocks per game (3.6) while Dallas ranks fourth (4.4).
The Mavericks average 14.1 second chance points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Warriors rank 14th in second chance points allowed per game (12.9).
Dallas is second in the NBA with 41.1 rebounds allowed per game while Golden State is third with 41.3 rebounds allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
In its last five outings, Golden State is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Warriors have been outscored by an average of 5.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Golden State has defeated opponents by an average of 7.8 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.8 points per game (13.5 below their season average).
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