The Denver Nuggets (27-25) will try to slow down the NBA’s top scoring team when they challenge the Golden State Warriors (41-11) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 3, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Golden State opened as a 5.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 229 points.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
The last time the Warriors played, they topped the Sacramento Kings, 119-104. The Warriors held the Kings to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.0 (below their season average of 21.6). The Kings had a free throw rate of 0.105 (below their season average of 0.149). With 33 points on 12-for-17 shooting, Kevin Durant was the top scorer from either team.
The Nuggets edged the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last matchup, 127-124. Denver’s 22.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a rate of 20.9. The Nuggets’ mark was below their season average of 26.5, while the Thunder’s was below their season average of 28.4. With 29 points, 14 assists and 13 rebounds, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with his second triple-double of the season.
The offensive glass should be a huge advantage for Denver in this showdown. The Nuggets currently rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5 percent), while Golden State ranks 20th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent). Furthermore, the Warriors rank first in offensive efficiency (113.9), while the Nuggets rank 22nd in defensive efficiency (107.6).
Golden State has an outstanding 41-11 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 21-28-2 against the spread (ATS). Warriors games have a slight tendency to go over the projected point total (54.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver is 27-25 SU and 23-26-3 ATS. Vegas is known to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 30 of their 51 games have gone under the total.
Jokic and Jamal Murray have played well over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 16.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game. Not to be outdone, Murray has put up 20.6 points and 5.0 assists a game during that span.
The Warriors lead the season series against the Nuggets two games to one, including a 10-point victory in their last matchup. Golden State covered as a 10-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 238 points, which was 10.5 points above the projected point total of 227.5 points. Golden State’s 0.176 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Denver, who had a mark of 0.126. Draymond Green put up a double-double in the victory with 23 points and 10 assists.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Golden State is 12-14 ATS on the road with 15 overs and 11 unders.
Denver is 14-12-1 ATS at home with 16 unders and 11 overs.
Golden State is 11-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 13-2.
The Warriors are 38-7 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 21-16.
Golden State averages 30.4 assists per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Denver ranks 27th in assists allowed per game (24.4).
The Nuggets rank first in second chance points allowed per game (9.6) while the Warriors rank 26th (13.5).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Golden State ranks 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.3).
The Nuggets rank sixth in fast break points per game (13.8) while the Warriors rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
Golden State ranks 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while Denver ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.2).
The Warriors rank first in blocks per game (7.8) while the Nuggets rank 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Golden State ranks ninth in steals per game (8.2) while Denver ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Nuggets rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Warriors rank 12th (44.2).
Denver averages 30.3 three pointers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Golden State ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (28.8).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 0-4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 8.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 112.4 points per game (5.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
