The New Orleans Pelicans (0-2) challenge the Golden State Warriors (2-0) at Smoothie King Center in game three of the Western Conference Semifinals. The game can be seen on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, May 4, 2018.
Golden State is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 230.5 points.
Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Prediction
In game two, Green put up 20 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds and the Warriors beat the Pelicans 121-116 but could not cover as 11-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 237 points, which was 8 points above the projected point total of 229 points. Golden State made good use of their 27 trips to the free throw line, converting on 22 of them (81.5 percent). New Orleans, meanwhile, was just 7-9 (77.8 percent).
Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a matchup of two heavyweights. The sweet-shooting New Orleans offense ranks fourth in the NBA in that metric at 0.542, while the stingy Golden State defense is ranked third in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502).
Golden State has an outstanding 64-25 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 37-49-3 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Warriors’ games have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 52-36 SU and 50-37-1 ATS. Of the Pelicans’ 88 games, 52 have finished over the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Draymond Green (12.6 rebounds, 12.2 points, 8.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks) has been stellar for the Warriors while Rajon Rondo (12.8 assists, 10.8 points and 7.6 rebounds) has made great contributions to the Pelicans.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Golden State is 19-23-1 ATS with 22 overs and 21 unders.
New Orleans is 21-21-1 ATS at home with 30 overs and 13 unders.
Golden State is 18-5 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while New Orleans is 13-2.
The Pelicans are 48-24 when they reach 100 points, while the Warriors are 60-15.
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.0) while New Orleans ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.4).
The Pelicans average 8.1 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Warriors rank last in steals allowed per game (8.7).
New Orleans averages 52.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Golden State ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.1).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.3) while the Pelicans rank 21st in assists allowed per game (23.8).
Golden State ranks seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.2) while New Orleans ranks 25th (45.6).
The Warriors average 17.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
Golden State ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (29.2) while New Orleans ranks 26th (30.7).
The Pelicans rank 19th in second chance points per game (11.9) while the Warriors rank 29th (10.3).
Golden State allows the fewest blocks per game (3.6) while New Orleans ranks fourth (4.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.0, up from 6.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 115.6 points per game (3.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.2 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
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