The Portland Trail Blazers face off against the visiting Golden State Warriors in Game of the Western Conference Semifinals at the Moda Center. Action begins at 10:30 pm ET on Monday, May 9 and will air on TNT and C+D.
The Trail Blazers enter this game hoping for similar success after beating the Warriors 120-108 on Saturday. Damian Lillard played a pivotal role, recording 40 points and 10 assists to notch his 16th double-double of the season.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. The Trail Blazers commit the fifth-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 14.1%), while the gambling defense of Portland forces the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.8%).
The Trail Blazers are attempting to build on their records of 49-42 Straight Up (SU) and 48-43 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. The Trail Blazers have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the league in home offense with 107.8 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Warriors head into the game with records of 49-38-3 ATS and 79-11 SU. In Western Conference games, Golden State has gone 79-11 SU and 49-38-3 ATS. The Warriors are the number one overall scoring offense, averaging 114.5 points per game so far. The Warriors rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league at 1.97. The Golden State defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing .432 shooting from the field to its opponents. A large part of Golden State’s game is creating turnovers and turning them into points. They are scoring 17.4 points per game off turnovers, which ranks fifth in the league.
With the Trail Blazers’ last win against Golden State, Portland is still behind in the head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings, 2-8 SU. Additionally, with an 8-2 record, the Warriors have the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – GS
Notes
Golden State ranks first in points allowed per road game (106.2 PPG), while Portland ranks third in points per home game with 107.8.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are 25-5 on the season. When the Warriors score fewer than 100, they are an underachieving 2-6.
The Portland Trail Blazers have a subpar 24-37 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Golden State Warriors are 77-5 when they hit triple digits.
The Warriors have a defensive rating of 101.0, third-best in the NBA. The Trail Blazers also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 106.5 (ranked seventh).
Golden State beats Portland in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Warriors average 101.5 possessions and 1.128 points per possession, while the Trail Blazers average 98.4 possessions with 1.065 points per possession.
The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking 10th in the league with an EFF% of 50.8%. The Golden State Warriors have an exceptional 21-7 record in games where opponents have a similar or higher EFF%.
The Portland Trail Blazers average 28.0 three point attempts per game and are 40-29 when attempting at least 25 in a game. The Golden State Warriors average 31.0 attempts and have a tremendous record (71-10) when attempting 25 or more.
Portland makes an average of 4.6 blocks per game (ranked 19th). Golden State ranks higher in blocks with 6.1 (ranked fourth).
Ranked first, the Golden State Warriors are one of the top-ranked defensive rebounding teams. The Portland Trail Blazers are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the league (ranked third).
Golden State averages 8.3 steals per game (ranked ninth). Portland is 24-20 when allowing at least 8 steals.
