A trip to the NBA Finals will be on the line when the Houston Rockets (3-3) take on the Golden State Warriors (3-3) at Toyota Center in game seven of the Western Conference Finals. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, May 28, 2018, and will air on TNT.
Golden State opened as a 6-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 209 points.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Betting Prediction
Thompson scored a game-high 35 points in game six, in which the Warriors beat the Rockets 115-86, covering as 12-point favorites. He also had six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 201 points, which was 13.5 points below the projected point total of 214.5 points. The Warriors had a much better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 19.9) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.5 vs. 17.1).
This showdown pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Houston ranks second in offensive efficiency and Golden State is fifth in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Warriors rank 21st in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), while the Rockets rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (80.0 percent).
Golden State is 69-29 straight up (SU), but they are just 41-54-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Warriors’ 98 games, 51 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Houston is 76-22 SU and 50-46-2 ATS. Games including the Rockets tend to go under the total (57.1 percent).
The Warriors are 14-10 ATS with 14 unders, nine overs and one push in the playoffs, while the Rockets are 1-4 with four unders and one over
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Golden State is 21-26-1 ATS with 25 unders and 23 overs.
Houston is 22-27-1 ATS at home with 26 unders, 23 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Golden State is 21-7 and Houston is 38-3.
The Warriors are 65-17 when they score over 100 points, while the Rockets are 71-15.
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (28.7) while Houston ranks 28th (21.1).
The Rockets rank fifth in steals per game (8.4) while the Warriors rank 27th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
Houston ranks seventh in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (13.2).
The Rockets average 41.9 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Warriors rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (29.7).
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (18.8) while Houston ranks 17th (11.2).
The Rockets rank 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.4) while the Warriors rank 26th (18.0).
Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.1) while Houston ranks 13th (4.9).
The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (40.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.2, up from 6.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 98.2 points per game (13.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (2.6 above their season average).
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