The Houston Rockets go head-to-head with the Golden State Warriors at Toyota Center in the first game of the Western Conference Finals. The game can be seen on TNT at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, May 14, 2018.
Houston opened as a 1.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 224 points.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Betting Prediction
The Warriors come in on a high note after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup, 113-104. Golden State out-rebounded New Orleans. The Warriors had 12 offensive rebounds and 53 total rebounds, while the Pelicans had four and 44, respectively. Draymond Green led the way for Golden State, finishing with 19 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists.
In the Rockets’ last game, they defeated the Utah Jazz, 112-102. Houston’s 9.0 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Utah, who had a rate of 11.7. The Rockets’ mark was better than their season average of 11.8. Chris Paul was the game’s leading scorer with 41 points on 13-for-22 shooting.
It might turn into a high-scoring affair as a pair of the league’s premier offenses battle. Houston currently ranks first with 112.9 points per 100 possessions and Golden State is second (112.4). Also, the Warriors, who rank 21st in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), will face off against the Rockets, who rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (80.1 percent).
Golden State has an excellent 66-26 straight up (SU) record, but they have a hard time covering the spread (38-51-3 against the spread (ATS)). Vegas is extremely precise when predicting totals of Warriors games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Houston is 73-19 SU and 47-43-2 ATS. Rockets games tend to finish under the projected point total (55.4 percent).
In the First-Round Series, the Rockets were 1-4 with four unders and one over while the Warriors were 14-10 ATS with 14 unders, nine overs and one push
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Draymond Green (14.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks) has been stellar for the Warriors while Chris Paul (18.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.0 steals) has made great contributions to the Rockets.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Golden State is 20-24-1 ATS with 23 unders and 22 overs.
At home, Houston is 20-26-1 ATS with 24 unders, 22 overs and 1 push.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Golden State is 19-5 and Houston is 36-3.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Warriors are 62-16 and the Rockets are 70-14.
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.3) while Houston ranks 27th (21.4).
The Rockets rank fourth in steals per game (8.5) while the Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
Houston averages 17.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Golden State ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.3).
The Rockets rank seventh in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while the Warriors rank 27th (13.5).
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.1) while Houston ranks 17th (11.3).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (42.1) while the Warriors rank 16th (29.0).
Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.2) while Houston ranks 11th (5.0).
The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push over their last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 6.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (3.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 98.6 points per game (4.9 below their season average).
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