The Houston Rockets head to Golden State to play the Warriors in a Western Conference Finals Game 1 matchup that will likely be up tempo. The game gets underway at 9:00 pm ET on Tuesday, May 19 and will air on ESPN.
The Warriors beat the Grizzlies 108-95 on Friday. With 32 points and 10 assists, Stephen Curry recorded his 23rd double-double this season. James Harden shot 7-for-20 and led in scoring with 31 points.
There should be plenty of transition action in this game. The Warriors rank first in the league in possessions per game (101.2), while the Rockets are third (100.0).
Golden State is a considerable 10-point favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is 218 points. The Warriors are attempting to build on their records of 67-15 Straight Up (SU) and 47-34-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 42-10 SU and 32-20 ATS against teams from the Western Conference. The Warriors have the top-ranked offense in terms of FG%, shooting .478 from the floor. Spreading the ball around is a huge part of Golden State’s offense. They lead the league in assists with an average of 27.4 per game. Transitioning to the Golden State defense, teams have to fight for open shots against the Warriors, who have the best opponent field-goal percentage in the league at .428. The Warriors are fourth in the league in steals with 9.3 per game. Something to watch out for is if Golden State can force its opponents into turnovers and convert them into baskets. They’ve done an excellent job of that all year with an average of 19.5 points off turnovers per game to lead the league. Expect Golden State to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Rockets, who are one of the most foul-prone teams in the league with an average of 22.0 fouls per game.
On the other side, Houston has a SU record of 56-26 and an ATS record of 48-34. Houston has a record of 33-19 SU and 30-22 ATS against the West. The Rockets are getting to the foul line at a high rate. Their 1,525 free throws made ranks fifth in the NBA. When it comes to stealing the ball away, the Rockets are one of the best in the league with an average of 9.5 steals per game. A large part of Houston’s game is creating turnovers and turning them into points. They are scoring 18.9 points per game off turnovers, which ranks fourth in the league.
Golden State beat Houston in their most recent meeting this season, moving its SU record against the Rockets to 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Warriors also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Golden State and Houston each held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last 10 meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston’s offense and Golden State’s defense are well matched, ranking zeroth in points per game and points allowed per game respectively. Houston puts up an average of 0.0 points per game, while Golden State allows 0.0 points per game.
Houston and Golden State are well matched, ranking zeroth in points per away game and points allowed at home respectively. Houston scores an average of 0.0 points on the road, while Golden State gives up 0.0 points at home on average.
The Houston Rockets have an exceptional 35-4 record when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Golden State Warriors are 8-6 when they score less than 100.
Houston is 21-22 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Warriors have a superb 59-9 record when hitting triple digits.
The Warriors have the best defense in the NBA, with a defensive rating of 98.6. The Rockets have an offensive rating of 104.0 (ranked 12th).
The Golden State Warriors have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking first in the league with a FG% of 47.8%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Houston Rockets have an underachieving 5-17 record.
The Houston Rockets rank lower for their field goal percentage (20th) than their effective field goal percentage (seventh), while the Golden State Warriors rank the same for both metrics (first).
The Golden State Warriors top the league in assists, earning 27.4 per game this season. The Houston Rockets are also among the best in the NBA, earning 22.2 per game (ranked ninth).
Golden State ranks near the top of the league in blocking at second (6.0 blocks per game). Houston is ranked 10th, with 5.0 blocks per game.
Golden State is ranked 23rd when it comes to offensive rebounding. Houston ranks 18th in defensive rebounds.
The Houston Rockets rank third in steals, with an average of 9.5 per game. When the Golden State Warriors allow at least 9 steals, they have a superb 33-8 record.
