The New Orleans Pelicans (1-2) meet the Golden State Warriors (2-1) at Smoothie King Center in game four of the Western Conference Semifinals. The game will air on ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 6, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 231.5 points with Golden State opening as a 5.5-point favorite.
Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction
In game three, Davis scored a game-high 33 points and the Pelicans defeated the Warriors 119-100, covering as 4.5-point underdogs. He also recorded 18 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 219 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 233 points. New Orleans’ 0.573 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Golden State, who had a rate of 0.429.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a matchup of two heavyweights. The elite New Orleans offense ranks fourth in the NBA in that metric at 0.542, while the stingy Golden State defense is ranked third in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.503).
Golden State is 64-26 straight up (SU), but they are just 37-50-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Warriors’ 90 games, 45 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 53-36 SU and 51-37-1 ATS. Vegas is known to place the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 58.4 percent of their games have ended over the total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Draymond Green (14.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals) has been stellar for the Warriors while Rajon Rondo (14.0 points, 11.8 assists, 7.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals) has contributed greatly to the Pelicans.
Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Golden State is 19-24-1 ATS with 22 overs and 22 unders.
At home, New Orleans is 22-21-1 ATS with 30 overs and 14 unders.
Golden State is 18-5 when they allow below 100 points, while New Orleans is 13-2.
When reaching 100 points, the Warriors are 60-16 and the Pelicans are 49-24.
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.1) while New Orleans ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
The Pelicans average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Warriors rank last in steals allowed per game (8.7).
New Orleans averages 52.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Golden State ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.2).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.2) while the Pelicans rank 21st in assists allowed per game (23.8).
Golden State averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
The Warriors rank seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.4) while the Pelicans rank 25th (45.6).
Golden State ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (29.2) while New Orleans ranks 26th (30.7).
The Pelicans rank 18th in second chance points per game (12.0) while the Warriors rank 29th (10.3).
Golden State ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.6) while New Orleans ranks fourth (4.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 6.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 117.2 points per game (5.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.8 points per game (3.5 above their season average).
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