The Oklahoma City Thunder (45-33) will try to slow down the league’s top scoring team when they square off with the Golden State Warriors (56-21) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game is scheduled to get underway at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 3, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 222 points with Oklahoma City set as a 4-point favorite.
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction
The last time the Warriors played, they defeated the Phoenix Suns, 117-107. Golden State’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Phoenix. The Warriors had a rate of 0.612 (above their season average of 0.571), while the Suns posted a mark of 0.517. Golden State was lifted by Kevin Durant, who was the game’s high scorer with 29 points on 12-for-19 shooting.
The Thunder defeated the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup, 109-104. Oklahoma City’s rebounding was their largest strength. The Thunder had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. seven) and total rebounds (51 vs. 44). With 26 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists, Russell Westbrook led the way for Oklahoma City with his 23rd triple-double this season.
Look for Oklahoma City to dominate the offensive glass in this meeting. The Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.7 percent), while Golden State ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent). Also, the Warriors rank 28th in turnover percentage (14.9 percent), while the Thunder rank first in opponents’ turnover percentage (15.4 percent).
Golden State has a phenomenal 56-21 straight up (SU) record, but they struggle covering the spread (31-43-3 against the spread (ATS)). Just over half of the Warriors’ games have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 45-33 SU and 31-45-2 ATS. Of the Thunder’s 78 games, 43 have finished under the projected point total.
Quinn Cook has averaged 16.2 points and 5.4 assists over the last five games for Golden State.
The Thunder have won two out of three against the Warriors this season, but dropped their most recent matchup, a 32-point blowout. Oklahoma City covered as a 10-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 192 points, which was 41.5 points below the projected point total of 233.5 points. The Warriors had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.567 vs. 0.381) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (29.3 vs. 25.0). Stephen Curry had a stellar game, with 21 points, nine rebounds and six assists.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Golden State is 16-20-1 ATS with 19 overs and 18 unders.
At home, Oklahoma City is 15-22-2 ATS with 22 unders and 17 overs.
Golden State is 15-5 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 21-5.
The Thunder are 41-17 when they reach the century mark, while the Warriors are 53-13.
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Golden State ranks 29th (10.3).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.1) while the Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
Oklahoma City averages 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. Golden State ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.5) while the Thunder rank 27th (21.3).
Oklahoma City averages 15.0 fast break points per game, which ranks third in the league. Golden State ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (13.9).
The Warriors rank 13th in three pointers allowed per game (28.9) while the Thunder rank 25th (30.6).
Golden State ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 11th (4.6).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Warriors rank 14th (43.7).
Oklahoma City averages 44.1 points in the paint per game, which ranks 14th in the league. Golden State ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Warriors have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Golden State has defeated opponents by an average of 6.9 points.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (1.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.0 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
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