Two Western Conference finalists will meet for the first time in the new season when the Golden State Warriors visit San Antonio to play the Spurs. It’s an aching reminder of the Finals for the home fans, who won’t be able to see their team at full strength. Yet, nobody will feel sorry for the Spurs, and certainly not the Warriors, who had a shaky start and want to string more good wins to show their true potential.
Warriors at Spurs
Spread: Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 216.5 points (-110)
Dubs thrash Clippers 141-113
The Warriors are still very much frustrated by pretty much anything surrounding their start to the season. After three seasons of outmost dominance, it’s rather weird that they feel that they have to answer nagging media questions with a statement game. It’s exactly what the 141-113 win over the (un)suspecting Clippers was. It’s not that anyone seriously doubted what the Warriors can do when they want. The question is if they’ll be happy for their performance in L.A. now and play down to the opposition in games ahead.
On Tuesday, it’s was a symphonic explosion. The Warriors scored 74 points in the first half (period of time when they usually let just pass by) and would put the foot off the gas until the final whistle. Steph Curry buried the Clippers from beyond the arc, hitting 7-of-11 of his attempts, a part of a 14-of-29 night for the Warriors. He scored 31 points, and Durant added highly efficient 19, both while less than 30 minutes on the court. The Warriors shot 52-of-89 (58.4 percent) from the field and had incredible 37 assists in as good of an offensive game as you can see the entire season. They’ve cut the turnovers down in half, finishing with season-low 12 for the game. Defensively, they were more active, sending early double teams Griffin’s way, not allowing him to breathe, and the Clippers had to find another way to play on offense than they usually do. The Warriors wouldn’t force a lot of turnovers, but managed to somewhat disrupt the flow of their opponents’ game.
All players broke the sweat in Los Angeles, and all of them scored. They are completely injury free as they travel to San Antonio. After this game, the Warriors travel to Denver before returning home for an easy four-game homestand. This could be a start of a good winning streak for the champs.
Place: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Date/Time: Thursday, November 2nd, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
After a good start, the Spurs lose three in a row
Usually a very steady away team, the Spurs couldn’t sustain the strong start and have already started showing fatigue. They started the East trip on a goo note, winning convincingly in Miami, but after a humiliating loss to the Magic, they continued to play below their standard. The losses in Indiana and Boston followed, as the Spurs couldn’t find any offensive rhythm. Having distributed the roles almost evenly among the supporting cast in the past few years, the Spurs needed someone to step out of the character and provide more to compliment Aldridge, but the players didn’t seem to have enough hunger no energy to do it.
Instead, the Boston Celtics (and previously the Indiana Pacers) looked like aggressors. Playing on the second night of the back-to-back, Popovich rested Manu Ginobili, who serves as a catalyst off the bench despite his 40 years of age. After carrying the Spurs in a close loss in Indy, the towering Spurs duo of veteran All-Stars didn’t have enough left in the tank. Aldridge never established himself as a force, finishing the game with 11 points and 5 rebounds, while missing 8 of 13 shots from the field and 4 of 5 free throws. Gasol had 11 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, which is a very decent stat line for his 25 minutes of play, but the problem is that such lines can support, and there was no one to lead. The backcourt duo of Murray and Green was terrible, there’s no nicer way to put it. Patty Mills can’t make any shot to make, and while he is showing some aggressiveness when it comes to shooting, it doesn’t come within the flow of the game, and his shot selection is poor. He finished with 7 points and 4 dimes, but took 10 shots to reach the point total. To add to Spurs offensive woes, the team only connected on 10-of-20 free throws in Boston. Reserves Brandon Paul had 18 points and Rudy Gay scored 14 for San Antonio.
On top of rested Ginobili and longtime absentees Leonard and Parker, the Spurs also had to play with Lauvergne, who missed the fourth straight game. The Spurs return home where they played only twice this season, where they’ll stay for another four games.
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs Game Trends & Prediction
The Golden State Warriors won and covered in the last game, and it was obviously an over game. It improved their ATS record to (still ugly) 2-6 for the season, and the Dubs are now 6-2 against the over/under. However, they are better playing away from home, where they are 2-2 ATS and 3-1 on the totals. It seems that they aren’t bothered by the travel as much as by large handicaps at home.
The San Antonio Spurs have been an underdog in Boston and I faded them in the last game, so what was their loss was my win. They fell to a 3-4 record against the spread, but have covered in both home games thus far. They are clearly a team to be hunted for unders, but the lines below 200 points offset their tendencies. So far, the books have done a fairly good job to squash under values. On San Antonio games, total points line was eclipsed three times, and stayed under four times.
Admi-Rank: After plummeting in the ranking, a good fat win gets the Warriors a slight uptick. The Spurs, on the other side, are sinking after three consecutive losses. Rarely have these two teams been separated by more than at this point. You gave attribute that to Leonard’s injury or the Warriors greatness, but it’s obvious that the two don’t belong in the same tier now.
TNT is probably cursing their luck with the Spurs-Warriors games, as either team rest stars, or they sit out truly injured. It’s not what they hoped to see to the national audience, but it does open some gates for younger Spurs guys to earn a few new fans across the US. And we, we can always search for an opportunity to earn a buck on a dime, as long as there’s value bet to had.
The value happens to be with the away team. Yes, rare were the occasions when a road jolly would be a good bet in San Antonio, but this is clearly the worst squad the Spurs can send out. They’ll play with pride at home, knowing that the nation is watching, but their system can’t work against the Warriors. Gasol and Aldridge are simply too slow and unathletic to stay in the game together, and there’s very little options to go with behind the two. The Spurs are still going to win against teams they can stop, but the Warriors aren’t going to be shut down. Go with the away side here.
The total is set at 216.5, slightly below what’s expected for this game. My calculations show best outcome distribution for 218.5, but it’s not enough for going with over, especially if you count on a blowout GSW victory.
My Pick: Golden State -5.5 (-110)
Total: (no wager on the total points)
