The star-packed, flashy Golden State Warriors will have the exact opposite for their West Conference semi-finals series, but while the Utah Jazz players aren’t common household names, it doesn’t mean that this series will be a walkover. In fact, the Jazz might even be a team that gives the most trouble to the No. 1 seed in their quest to the championship.
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #5 Utah Jazz
Two teams met only three times this season, with the Warriors winning two December meetings and Utah taking the most recent one. But the match-up has been more one-sided than that in the recent years. In the last four seasons, the Warriors have won 13 of the 15 played games.
Regular season results:
12/08/16 UTH 99 – GSW 106
12/20/16 GSW 104 – UTH 74
04/10/17 GSW 99 – UTH 105
The Warriors have been favored by 10 or more points in each of the three games played this season, so the Jazz managed to cover in two. In the only home game, the Utah Jazz played a patched up lineup as George Hill, Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors did not dress. They trailed by as much as 22 in the first half before providing a back door cover. Injury situation improved for the second game, played 12 days later, with only Hill and Favors unavailable, but the Warriors were merciless in this one, blowing out the Jazz at home. The final game of the season was played without Hayward, Favors and Hood on the Jazz side, while the Warriors rested Klay Thompson and did not strain the starters as they already clinched the top spot. The Jazz led almost the entire game to win in Oakland.
The Warriors have the home court advantage, and have had more time to rest as they were waiting for their next opponents since last Wednesday, while the Jazz had to play all 7 games and advanced by beating the Clippers on Sunday afternoon.
Playoff results and schedule:
Game 1 – UTH @ GSW (Tuesday 5/02/17, 10:30 PM ET – TNT)
Game 2 – UTH @ GSW (Thursday 5/04/17, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN )
Game 3 – GSW @ UTH (Saturday 5/06/17, 8:30 PM ET – ABC)
Game 4 – GSW @ UTH (Monday 5/08/17, 9:00 PM ET – TNT)
Game 5 – UTH @ GSW (Wednesday 5/10/17, tbd – TNT, if needed)
Game 6 – GSW @ UTH (Friday 5/12/17, tbd – ESPN, if needed)
Game 7 – UTH @ GSW (Sunday 5/14/17, tbd – if needed)
Warriors in the rearview mirror
For the third consecutive year, the Golden State Warriors have claimed the home court throughout the playoffs, posting an NBA best record of 67-15. This time, they were smarter. After a gargantuan effort to set a new regular season record drained their energy for the playoffs, the Warriors realized that only the rings matter. When an incredible opportunity to sign Kevin Durant to already the best team in the league materialized, some believed that the Warriors will beat the record of the previous year, but instead, they focused on the important things.
The play had to be adjusted to fit his game, new role players had to step in for the ones that have been let go to create space and the defense would have to be redesigned to account for Bogut’s departure from it’s anchor. The coaching staff did an excellent job and the Warriors were in cruise control until the new star, Durant, injured his knee and was forced to miss one month of action. The Golden State Warriors couldn’t respond to his absence immediately, losing 5 games in quick succession, but got the things together and proceeded to win 14 games in a row, until the Jazz snapped the win streak.
Durant returned late in the regular season, but as his leg was still troubling him and Portland posing no serious threat, he was rested in two first round games. The Golden State Warriors won in 4 games, blowing out the Blazers twice and winning the other two in relatively close manner.
Golden State Warriors Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 43-40-3
Over/under Score: 35-51
Jazz in the rearview mirror
From the start of training camp, the Jazz have fought through adversity, injuries, patchwork lineups and questions as to whether key players would be available and at their best once the postseason hit. The question will remain even after the season ends, as the future of the franchise is uncertain with contract of Hayward and Hill expiring after the season. Through all this, the Utah Jazz continues to fight, to overcome problems and evolve as a true powerhouse.
Carefully built roster had the veteran leadership, stars in their primes and the young guns. They are humble, hardworking team that believe in Jazz identity and each other. They play their own away and won’t back off of it just because it’s not trendy. Value each possession, fight for every ball, defend with focus and energy.
They started the season well as the addition of George Hill proved to be an excellent fit for both sides right from the start, so this momentum carried over even with Hill, Favors and Hood having major troubles with injuries. Fortunately, it also accelerated the growth of Rudy Gobert, a mobile, shot blocking center, who played a All-NBA type of season to help his team reach so far. Hayward got his first All-Star invitation for his work and the Jazz can brag with allowing 96.8 points to the opposition, league best, while also ranking in the best three in many other defensive categories.
The first round playoff series versus the Clippers was fittingly dramatic. Gobert injured his knee less than a minute into it, causing him to miss the first three games. The Jazz pulled an upset in the first game, but the Clippers materialized his absence and won the next two. Then Griffin went down an Hayward couldn’t play due to an illness, but the Jazz not only evened the series, but won in LA to take 3-2 lead for the control of the series. They were finally healthy and had their rivals cornered, but couldn’t knock the out at home. They won convincingly in Game 7, taking the third road game of the playoff already.
Utah Jazz Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 41-44-4
Over/under Score: 45-44
Matching them up
The Golden State Warriors are the obvious favorite to advance as they have an edge on most positions, playing 2 former MVPs and another 3 All-Star players. Their backcourt Splash Brothers tandem have held ground against Lillard and McCollum, but Hill and Hood will pose more problems staying attached to them on defense and the two won’t dominate. However, the Jazz are going from superiority on the wings in the Clippers series, to having to cope with Durant and Green.
While Hayward can probably compete with most wings in the league, Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson who had played such a large roles in the first round are simply too slow-footed to have a significant impact without getting burned on the defensive end. And with Green playing outside most of the time, Favors isn’t the best option either. The only guy that gives the Jazz some edge is their center, Rudy Gobert, if truly completely healthy.
Series prediction
The Golden State Warriors should win this Western Conference Semifinal series in 7. Despite the fame, the rest and the talent, I don’t think this will be an easy series for the Warriors. They haven’t faced Utah’s defense at the full power this season and they might get frustrated by not getting any easy looks until they figure out a way to play them. The Jazz are obviously good playing in the hostile environments and could steal one in Oracle Arena to immediately prolong the series. The Warriors are too talented to be stifled in seven games and will ultimately win and advance.
Series MVP
Draymond Green. With so many great players in the match-up it’s hard to predict who will have the best series. Green has found his offense in the four games vs Blazers and can be the most impactful player as he provides a match-up nightmare for the Jazz with his pick and pop offense, great high post passing and excellent defense. There will be some better players than him on the court when the teams shake hands for the first time on Tuesday, but by the series end, he’ll look up to neither of them.
X-factor
Dante Exum. The veteran Joe Johnson was the x-factor for the Jazz in the series with the Clippers, but I don’t think he’ll have much impact this time. But another Jazz bench player could be just what they need to cause trouble to the favorites. Exum’s athletic abilities, the length and the quickness, along with improved decision making, could prove extremely valuable against skilled Warriors guards. He started all three regular season games against the Golden State Warriors and was terrible. Yet, playing against the Dubs’ second unit could do wonders for the Aussie and he might surprise a few people before all’s said and done.
