The PGA Tour heads to Carnoustie, Scotland and the Carnoustie Golf Club for the Open Championship this week. Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy will headline a loaded cast of contenders looking for the spotlight. The third major tournament of the year might look like one of the most unpredictable on paper. However, we took the time to break down the field and what it will take to win in order to identify the best bets on the board for this week’s tournament. Here is a look at the best bets for the Open Championship this week.
Event Details
Event: Open Championship
Category: PGA
Date: July 19th-22nd, 2018
Location: Carnoustie Golf Club, Carnoustie, Scotland
This will be the seventh time that the Carnoustie Course will be the venue for the Open Championship. It marks the first time the event returns to Carnoustie since Padraig Harrington beat Sergio Garcia in a playoff back in 2007. While Harrington’s victory is the most recent, it isn’t the most memorable at this course. That title belongs to Barry Burn, who won the Open Championship at Carnoustie in 1999 following Jean Van De Velde’s epic meltdown when he blew a three-shot lead on the 72nd hole.
Past Five Winners
2017: Jordan Spieth -12
2016: Henrik Stenson -20
2015: Zach Johnson -15
2014: Rory McIlroy -17
2013: Phil Mickelson -3
What To Know About The Course
Nobody will ever forget Van De Velde’s self-destruction at Carnoustie, but that doesn’t mean we should expect a similar situation with whoever the frontrunner is heading in to the final stretch this year. Scrambling should be the key statistic to keep an eye on as the one number that stands out above the rest at this course. Harrington ranked first in Scrambling when he won this event in 2007. Meanwhile, the average Scrambling ranking for the top-five in 1999 was 4.8. Putting numbers will also be important this week. However, make sure you go back to the Scrambling numbers when you evaluate this week’s field.
The Field
D.J. is the sports betting favorite to win the Open Championship at +1015 odds. Johnson seems to be close to the elite form before he was injured a couple of years ago and if he is at his best he will be tough to beat. D.J. is followed closely by Justin Rose at +1550 odds and Rickie Fowler at +1650 odds. 2014 Open Champion Rory McIlroy is in the mix as well at +1650 odds, followed closely by Jon Rahm at +1850 odds. Last year’s winner Jordan Spieth rounds out the list of sports betting favorites to win the Open Championship at +1850 odds.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Justin Rose over Rickie Fowler
Fowler is the best player on the PGA Tour to never win a major tournament. The fact that he hasn’t done it so far has influenced our decision to bet against him as an excellent value fade opposite Rose this week. Rose is in excellent form heading in to this tournament including top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open, the Memorial and the Scottish Open following his victory at the Fort Werth Invitational. Rose should be a good bet to contend for the outright win this week. It makes sense to take him in a head-to-head sports betting matchup with Fowler to capitalize on the value this week.
Top-Five Pick: Dustin Johnson
When he is at the top of his game, nobody is better than Johnson. D.J.’s numbers are solid across the board and his Scrambling statistics in particular are absolutely solid. The 2016 U.S. Open winner has threatened to win this event several times before and the fact that he hasn’t closed to this point means he will be that much more motivated this week. Johnson is the sports betting favorite to win this tournament for a reason. At the very least, he should be able to place in the top-five at the 2018 Open Championship.
Sleepers
Alex Noren – Noren has won six times on the European Tour since the start of 2016, which – if you’re keeping track at home – is the most of anyone on the tour. He’s a good ball-striker and does well on difficult courses. He could be an intriguing play as one of the longshots at +2550.
Branden Grace – The South African shot the first ever 62 in a men’s major championship when produced that incredible round at Birkdale last year. Can he maintain an elite level for four rounds, though? He was in the running for the U.S. Open this year, sitting a in tie for 10th after three rounds, so maybe he can find a path to consistency and compete here.
Tony Finau – Finau has done well in the majors this year. He finished in a tie for 10th at the Masters and 5th at the U.S. Open. He does well off the tee, which is important at a course like this. At +8550, he could be an interesting value play.
Odds To Win 2018 Open Championship
Dustin Johnson +1015
Rory McIlroy +1650
Justin Rose +1550
Jordan Spieth +1850
Rickie Fowler +1650
Jon Rahm +1850
Justin Thomas +2250
Tommy Fleetwood +2050
Brooks Koepka +2050
Tiger Woods +2250
Sergio Garcia +2550
Jason Day +2850
Henrik Stenson +2850
Francesco Molinari +2050
Patrick Reed +3550
Paul Casey +3550
Alex Noren +2550
Hideki Matsuyama +4550
Branden Grace +3550
Marc Leishman +4550
Phil Mickelson +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +3550
Matthew Fitzpatrick +6550
Ian Poulter +6550
Russell Knox +6550
Louis Oosthuizen +7550
Tony Finau +8550
Matt Kuchar +7550
Bubba Watson +7550
Adam Scott +8550
Thomas Pieters +7550
Lee Westwood +8550
Bryson DeChambeau +9050
Rafael Cabrera Bello +9050
Patrick Cantlay +9050
Haotong Li +12000
Xander Schauffele +10000
Thorbjorn Olesen +9050
Zach Johnson +6550
Shane Lowry +12000
Ryan Fox +9000
Nicolas Colsaerts +12500
*Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
