The past week saw tons of movement along the top three seed lines, while the always fluid five-through-eight seed lines also saw their fare share of shuffling. We’ve got two new top seeds as well, pitting a familiar name alongside other power conference juggernauts.
Who moved down, and who moved up…here in the latest GetMoreSports.com College Basketball Bracketology.
#1 Seeds: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Gonzaga
Analysis: Despite two overtime scares from lesser SEC opponents–but really, who isn’t a lesser SEC opponent these days for the Wildcats–Kentucky remains our top overall seed. UK is the top ranked RPI team in the country, while also being No. 2 in KenPom’s rankings. Their combination of an undefeated record and one of the toughest schedules in the country certainly bodes well for them when it comes to rankings and their argument to remain atop the No. 1 seeds, though they’ve certainly looked vulnerable, at times, as of late. Virginia is also undefeated, and a road win at Notre Dame continues to give the Cavaliers the most impressive road-resume of any team in the country. The Cavs are No. 3 in RPI but sit on top of KenPom’s rankings.
Kansas is our first new team here, even though the Jayhawks were flirting with the No. 3 seed line just a week ago. KU has played the nation’s toughest RPI schedule, and their road win at Baylor is the latest piece of evidence that shows Kansas as a team emerging as a real threat nationally. Finally, we have Gonzaga, who’s birth as a one-seed just a couple of years ago was met with widespread criticism. Their loss to Wichita State seemed to validate people’s thoughts that a team from the WCC didn’t deserve a top-seed, despite the Shockers’ postseason run. Still, right now, their resume is deserving due to an average rank of No. 5 in RPI and KenPom.
Duke’s loss to Miami snapped a 41-game home winning streak, the longest active streak in Division I New leader- Gonzaga 34
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 14, 2015
#2 Seeds: Duke, Wisconsin, Villanova, Utah
Analysis: Two of last week’s one-seeds dropped today, though not very far. I’ve still got Duke–despite their road loss to NCSU and home drubbing to Miami–as the top seed in this group, due to their road win at Wisconsin and wins over Michigan State, Temple, UConn and Stanford. The Blue Devils’ defense is suspect, to the tune of allowing 90 points at home to The U, but their offense remains one of the best in the country…when they play through Jahlil Okafor. Sure, Wisconsin was without Frank Kaminsky and they lost Jackson against Rutgers, but blowing a double-digit lead to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten is alarming. I still see the Badgers only losing one or two more games before the conference tournament, so I’m not ready to drop them too far yet.
Villanova has bounced back in a big way, and are top-five in both RPI and KenPom. Still, they’ll need to avoid letdowns moving forward if they want a shot at moving up a line should some of the top seeds like Kansas and/or Gonzaga begin to fall. Utah is our final team here, moving up a line from last week. I’m not sure this team is ready to win at Arizona, but they’ll have the best player on the floor in Delon Wright, and if they do, we might want to start talking about a possible one-seed moving into next week.
#3 Seeds: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Arizona, Maryland
Analysis: Despite losing at home to Virginia, the Irish move up two seed lines. They’ve got a road trip to Georgia Tech, which they should take care of, and then a home game against Miami coming up, a chance to further boost their record and close the gap between their RPI rank (No. 47) and their KenPom numbers (No. 15). Iowa State, thanks to a huge road win over West Virginia also moves up. The next couple of games will be crucial, including their trip to Waco tonight for a fight with Baylor. If they get out of there with a win, and follow that with a win over Kansas at home, I like this call even more. If not, well, there’s always next week.
Arizona’s loss to Oregon State was concerning for all of the reasons we’ve been cautious to buy stock in the Wildcats for a while now. There are no consistent creators on the perimeter, and the defense isn’t what last year’s was. Beating Utah at home this week would be huge, obviously, to keep them from falling further, as their resume is still thin. Maryland is a team that the computers are still a bit unsure about, but I love the Terps. This call is more of a projection moving forward, while still considering their current resume (their loss to Illinois stings). Maryland has a real shot at finishing the year 25-6, and with a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament, this could be a good spot for the Terps.
#4 Seeds: VCU, Wichita State, Louisville, West Virginia
Analysis: As it will continue to be going forward, this is the most fickle seed line amongst the top four. Only VCU remains, as last week’s other three all dropped dramatically, with Louisville falling here, WVU barely slipped and the Shockers moving up. The computers love, love, love the Rams. And with good reason. They avoided an upset bid by Rhode Island and continue to wreak their…Havoc.
None of these four teams should feel comfortable with this projection, as all of their own concerns. Can VCU overcome their eventual Strength of Schedule numbers? Can Wichita State remain crisp against an always competitive MVC? Can Louisville stay above water enough to grab a couple of wins against the other elite teams in the ACC? For West Virginia, can they win on the road in conference?
#5 Seeds: North Carolina, Michigan State, Texas, Arkansas
#6 Seeds: Butler, Providence, Seton Hall, Iowa
#7 Seeds: Oklahoma, Baylor, Cincinnati, George Washington
#8 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Temple, UConn, Dayton
