Everything is going right for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Zags just became the No. 1 team in the country once again, and they are now two games away from finishing their conference slate undefeated. Gonzaga has not lost since falling on the road to North Carolina in mid-December, and the Bulldogs certainly look to be a team that will be on the No. 1 line on Selection Sunday. They still have to keep winning to earn that slot though, and while many are circling Saturday’s road game against rival St. Mary’s as a potential stumbling block, the Bulldogs must avoid disaster in a lookahead spot against the Pacific Tigers on Wednesday.
Pacific Tigers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (Advanced Lines Courtesy of BetDSI)
Gonzaga -20.5, O/U 142.5
The last meeting between these two schools was ugly. Pacific had its most anemic performance of the season on the offensive side of the ball, scoring just 36 points in a 67-36 rout. The Tigers turned the ball over a stunning 22 times, and they shot just 26.7 percent from the floor. To highlight just how bad things were, they shot the same percentage on two- and three-point shots.
That’s incredibly disappointing considering who Pacific’s head coach has been for the last two seasons. NBA veteran guard Damon Stoudamire became the head coach at Pacific at the start of the 2017-18 campaign, and he promised to install an offense that would be exhilarating to watch. That has not only failed to happen, but Pacific seems to be regressing in this aspect too. The Tigers are ranked 257th in adjusted offense according to Ken Pomeroy and we have seen diminishing returns from them as the season has gone along.
Over their past four games, Pacific has not topped 60 points. The Tigers could only muster 59 points against BYU and Santa Clara and scored only 56 points against Loyola Marymount. However, that is a bounty compared to what we saw when they faced Saint Mary’s. The Gaels held this offense to just 32 points, and Pacific only hit 20.8 percent of its field goals in that game.
As for Gonzaga, the Bulldogs are on fire. They have the best offense in the country according to Pomeroy’s numbers, and they have been pouring in the points, In their two most recent outings, the Zags put up 92 points against Pepperdine and 102 points against BYU, and they have scored 90 or more points in eight of their 14 WCC games.
The last time these teams met, the under cashed in a big way. If you are fortunate enough to have a site or a bookie that lets you play with action points, you would have made a mint, as the two teams combined to score just 103 points in a game that had a total of 158.
This over/under is significantly lower than what we saw when these teams first met on January 10. I think the over is the right play this time though, even with Pacific’s anemic offense. Gonzaga had an uncharacteristic poor offensive performance in their last meeting, and they will finish with around 85 this time.
