The Green Bay Packers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium this week. The NFL’s fifth-leading receiver, Jordy Nelson (1,320 yards, 12 TDs) the focal point of this game. Green Bay (10-4) goes into this game looking to add to its winning record, while Tampa Bay (2-12) will attempt to reverse fortune and pick up a much-needed win. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on FOX.
Tampa Bay lost in a close one against Carolina 19-17 last week. Green Bay fell short, getting beat by Buffalo 21-13. Eddie Lacy had a huge game running the ball for the Packers, carrying it 15 times for 97 yards and one TD. Randall Cobb added 96 yards on seven catches.
The Packers are favored by 10 points against the Buccaneers this week and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 48 points. Sitting at 2-12 Straight Up (SU) and 6-8 Against The Spread (ATS), the Buccaneers will look to improve as they head into Week 16. Over their last five games, the Buccaneers have records of 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS. When teams run the ball against the Packers, they do so with authority. Tampa Bay hopes to take advantage of a defense that allows 4.8 yards per rush during road games, 30th in the NFL. Recently, the Buccaneers have really been causing problems for their opponents. During its last five games, Tampa Bay has only given up 19 points, much less than its season average of 26.2 points. In those five games, the Tampa Bay pass defense has shown growth. The Buccaneers allowed an average of 250.9 passing yards for the season, but have cut that number down to 203.6 over the last five games. The Buccaneers are one of the best in the league at scoring in the fourth quarter, averaging 7.3 points.
On the other side, the Packers head into Week 16 with records of 7-6-1 ATS and 10-4 SU. Over their last five games, the Packers have a SU record of 4-1 and a 2-3 record ATS for those betting with them. They enter the week as the league’s second-best scoring offense, dropping an average of 31.1 points per game on opposing defenses. Hopefully Tampa Bay’s defense is better than its timing. It will be matching up against a Packers offense that is on fire as of late, averaging 430.0 total yards over their last five games. The Packers look to feast on Tampa Bay’s inept offense, which averages a league-worst 15.2 points per home game. The secondary for the Packers will be looking to shut down the already weak passing attack of the Buccaneers, which ranks 27th in the league with an average of 207 passing yards during home games. The Buccaneers need to hold onto the ball if they want a shot against the turnover-minded Packers. The Green Bay defense generates 1.8 turnovers per game, fourth in the league. There is no feeling-out process to start a game for the Packers, who average a league-best 9.8 points in the first quarter. Don’t be surprised to hear lots of calls against the Buccaneers when they take the field. Tampa Bay is among the most penalized teams in the league, receiving an average of 7.9 penalties per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – GB, ATS Winner – GB, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay’s last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 8 games.
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games.
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay’s last 17 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games at home.
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay.
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay.
Green Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
Green Bay is 9-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Green Bay is 10-0 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Tampa Bay is 1-3 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Green Bay is 8-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and winless (0-2 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Tampa Bay is 1-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and winless (0-7 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Tampa Bay defense has forced an average of 2.2 turnovers per game this season, but Green Bay is 5-1 SU when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, Green Bay is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its eighth-ranked offensive passing game will face the 24th-ranked pass defense of Tampa Bay, while its 16th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 21st-ranked aerial attack of the Buccaneers.
Green Bay is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 11th-ranked rushing attack will face the 19th-ranked run defense of Tampa Bay, while its 26th-ranked run defense will look to contain the 29th-ranked rushing game of the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has allowed 24.5 points per game at home this year, which is ranked only 25th in the league. Green Bay has scored 21.1 points per contest on the road (ranked 15th overall).
