NBA Preview: Grizzlies vs Spurs, Knicks vs Trail Blazers
Memphis Grizzlies (40-31) at San Antonio Spurs (54-16), 8:30 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -8.5. Total 197.
The Spurs are looking to get their first win against Memphis this season. The Grizzlies have won both games against San Antonio at the FedEx Forum in Memphis. Now the Spurs get to have the Grizzlies on their home court in the Alamodome.
The Grizzles have won four straight games, covering the spread each time, before losing to the New Orleans Pelicans two days ago, 95-82. DeMarcus Cousins finally had a breakout game for the Pelicans, scoring 41 points and grabbing 17 rebounds. His previous high was 31 points since coming over from the Sacramento Kings in a trade during the All-Star break.
That 4-game losing streak straight up and ATS (Against The Spread) being snapped sets up a small “chart play” against the Grizzlies tonight. My chart plays occur when streaks of any kind (spreads or totals) come to an end. When they end, you immediately start betting the other way. Since the Grizzlies’ 4-game cover streak ended last game, the default play is to bet against them in their next game, which is tonight against the Spurs. The longer the streak IS that has been snapped, the stronger the chart play will be.
I do not bet chart plays blindly. I look at other situational spots for all games.
One of those situational angles is the “quick-revenge spot”, which is in the Spurs’ favor tonight. A quick-revenge spot is a spot where the two teams playing have just faced each other within the last 10 days. Generally speaking, you take the team that lost that previous head-to-head matchup within the last 10 days.
The Spurs and Grizzlies played on March 18 with Memphis winning 104-96 as an underdog. So the play here using the quick-revenge spot is to take the Spurs tonight to win and cover the spread.
There is a chart play for the total tonight, too. The Spurs had gone over four consecutive games before staying under two days ago at Minnesota, where they beat the Timberwolves, 100-93. So the default play for tonight’s game on the total would be the under.
Despite the Spurs having some favorable factors on their side, I am not going to put money on them. San Antonio is only 17-16 against the spread at home this season, as they have been a better road team than home team.
I do not like laying 8.5 points in the NBA unless I have many trends aligning in my favor. A small chart play and even a quick-revenge spot, which is a fairly strong angle in the NBA, is not enough to get me to lay 8.5 against the Grizzlies tonight.
NBA Preview: Grizzlies vs Spurs, Knicks vs Trail Blazers
New York Knicks (27-44) at Portland Trail Blazers (32-38), 10:30 p.m. EST
Line: Blazers -12. Total 215.5.
The Knicks have been in free fall since they peaked on December 11.
New York was 14-10 at the time and the talking heads on television had them earmarked as a playoff team. Since then, they are 13-34 and virtually eliminated from playoff contention as they are 8 games out of the final playoff berth with just 11 games to play.
The Knicks vs. the spread is another story.
New York was 15-9 ATS on December 11 and are still a respectable 37-34 ATS on the season, which is #10 in the league.
Portland has the second-worst ATS record in the league. However, the Trail Blazers are fighting for the last playoff berth in the Western Conference. Portland is just 1.5 games back of Denver for the #8 spot in the West and I am sure they were disappointed that the Nuggets upset the Cavaliers Wednesday night as that was a big one-game swing against them.
The Blazers cannot concern themselves with what other teams are doing right now. They need to take care of business at home against a team that has basically quit this season, who is also on the back-end of a back-to-back. The Knicks are 6-7 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season.
However, Portland is just 2-8 ATS in “check-mark games” this season. A check-mark game is a game where a rested team has an opponent on the back-end of a back-to-back.
Normally, I would bet the Knicks tonight and take those 12 points, but it is late March and New York has mailed in the season, so I am not putting real money on a team playing a back-to-back who has nothing to play for.
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