If you’re looking to lay down some scratch on NFL team season win totals, now is the time to strike. The numbers have been available for a while and, barring any major injuries in the preseason, likely won’t fluctuate between now and opening day.
Of course, unless you have limitless funds at your disposal, you have to be selective. Our intrepid tandem of Chris and Glenn Gronkowski have already given you their picks for teams worth your betting dollar, with both guys honing in on three AFC teams in their selections. We’ll recap and analyze some of their picks below, but first here are some tips on betting the NFL:
When looking at betting the over, Chris sides with his brother Rob’s squad, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are sitting at an over/under of 11 wins. That is a huge number, showing the Patriots plenty of respect from the books.
“When was the last time that New England didn’t win 11 games in a season?” Chris asked. “… There isn’t much more to say, everyone knows what (quarterback Tom) Brady and (head coach Bill) Belichick can do.”
Looking at the numbers, Chris is dead on. The last time New England didn’t win at least 12 games was a 10-6 finish in 2009. It was the last of three straight seasons where the Pats recorded double-digit victories, but didn’t cross the dozen mark.
Still, is the over the safest bet? This will be the weakest overall roster Belichick has taken into battle in at least a decade, especially on defense. Belichick didn’t even hire a new defensive coordinator to replace Matt Patricia, who left to become the Detroit Lions’ head coach. Instead, Belichick will apparently craft the gameplan and linebackers coach Brian Flores will call the plays on gameday.
On offense, they’ll open the season without Julian Edelman, who’s been suspended for four games, and Brandin Cooks, who was traded to the Los Angeles Rams before the draft. I’m not brave enough to say the Patriots won’t still hit the over and I certainly think they’ll win the AFC East, but there’s a few chinks in the armor for sure. If it wasn’t for the Brady-Belichick history, there would be no way you’d bet the over.
Glenn’s pick for the over is right on the edge with the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are looking at an over/under of 8.5 victories. That’s a lot of love for a team that finished 6-10 last season.
“Jim Garoppolo has gone in there and already made a huge difference,” Glenn said. “The team believes in him and his leadership. He only had about five weeks to learn the playbook in the second half of last year and still turned the team around … I think the hot streak continues.”
https://www.getmoresports.com/betting-qa-with-glenn-gronkowski-nfl-futures-bets/
Again, we’re right on the ledge here because I picked the 49ers to finish 9-7 and outside the playoff hunt. All it takes to derail that is a stumble against a team they should beat, which seems to always happen to every team, or an injury. Say Garoppolo gets knocked into the concussion protocol for a game and the team trots out C.J. Beathard, that’s a loss.
Both men played it a bit safer in their under predictions. For Glenn, the Jets at O/U 6 were the pick, while Chris went with the Cleveland Browns at their over/under of 5.5 victories.
“It is tough to turn an 0-16 team around and win seven games,” Glenn said. “In fact, the Browns have won more than six games just once in the last 10 seasons…”
Glenn is correct and if you watched the first episode of HBO’s Hard Knocks and think Hue Jackson is coaching this team to anything other than a last place finish, you must be seeing a special director’s cut I missed. The fact is, a winning, or even somewhat positive season for the Browns will be a complete disaster for the franchise. Luckily Jackson and one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league, Gregg Williams, have teamed up to make sure that doesn’t happen.
The Browns under 5.5 wins is the easiest bet you will ever make.
As for the Jets? They finished 5-11 last season in possibly the finest coaching job of Todd Bowles’ career. This was a team that absolutely was built to tank 2017 and they opened the year 3-2. Of their 11 losses, six were by one score. I picked the Jets to finish 6-10 exactly, but this is a better roster in 2018 and they could very well go 8-8.
A better option, I think, are the Buffalo Bills. A.J. McCarron is a significant downgrade on offense from Tyrod Taylor. They could easily hand the keys to rookie Josh Allen at any moment and that 6.5 over/under is completely ridiculous. This is a 4-12 team at best.
