When the Atlanta Falcons beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-17 in Week 10 to improve to 3-6, it might not have seemed like a big deal on the surface but the rival New Orleans Saints had lost at home against the San Francisco 49ers to fall to 4-5. Suddenly, the lowly Falcons were just one game back of the NFC South lead. Then the Falcons added another win in Week 11 in Carolina to improve to 4-6 and climb a half-game above the 3-7-1 Panthers while New Orleans lost a second consecutive home game against the Cincinnati Bengals to fall to 4-6. That created a tie atop the NFC South with both teams two games below .500. Yes, its’ a sad state of affairs in the NFC South these days, isn’t it? Even the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are technically still alive at 2-8 but we’ll leave them out of this mix for now.
The NFC South race should come down to which team posts the best record the rest of the way between the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers. Here is a look at all three teams with their updated odds to win the NFC South listed next to them.
1. New Orleans Saints
Odds To Win NFC South: -175
Despite back-to-back losses at home and a loss to Atlanta earlier in the year, it’s New Orleans listed as the favorite to come through and win the NFC South. The Saints are the only team in the division with a positive point differential and an offense that ranks in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards per game. However, there aren’t any real breaks in their schedule beyond potentially a trip to Tampa Bay to close out the season, so they will have to earn it.
New Orleans does have the home advantage for its remaining two games against Carolina and Atlanta, as well as a home date with Baltimore this week, but they have to go on the road to face Pittsburgh and Chicago in cold weather games before visiting the Buccaneers in the season finale. That schedule is manageable and we’ll assume the Saints beat the Falcons and Panthers at home, which should give them the edge.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Odds To Win NFC South: +180
The Falcons limped in to their bye week on the heels of five straight losses but consecutive wins over NFC South opponents has suddenly launched them back in to the division race. They are 4-0 against the division and 0-6 against everyone else.
Playing the Saints in New Orleans two weeks after playing the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field will make for two tough road games but four of their remaining six games are at home against the Browns, Cardinals, Steelers, and Panthers. Winning three of their remaining four home games could be enough to steal the division with seven wins while that date with the Saints could be the difference between making the playoffs at 8-8 or just missing out at 7-9.
3. Carolina Panthers
Odds To Win NFC South: +900
The noticeable drop off in the odds to win the division is testament to how far the Panthers have fallen after going 13-3 last season. They’re winless in six straight and are 1-7-1 over their last nine games. Carolina can’t win more than eight games because of a tie with Cincinnati and having Cam Newton deal with multiple injuries figures to prevent that anyway.
The Panthers schedule includes winnable games against Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, but they will be on the road for their remaining games against both the Saints and Falcons. There is still an outside shot that Carolina comes through and wins the division, but at this point it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they shut Cam Newton down following another loss and turned their focus to next season.
