Week 4 of the German Bundesliga 2017/18 season will be opened with a duel at HDI-Arena in Hannover between the home team and the guests from the north of Germany, “The Red Shorts” (nickname for HSV). Both teams have entered the season in good form as newcomer Hannover 96 is undefeated after first three rounds and Hamburger SV has only one loss oppose to two wins and no draws. All of this looks like a good foundation for big expectations that we as fans have from this matchup. Will Hannover 96 continue with the undefeated run or will Hamburg bounce back from the last weekend’s home defeat by RB Leipzig remains to be seen.
When it comes to picking possible outcomes and quality picks everything is easily coming in its place as we get deeper into the season. Teams are showing how prepared they are and what their possibilities could be this year, allowing us to predict how every certain game could end up. It’s money earning time so let’s take a closer look.
Hannover 96 vs. Hamburger SV
Three-Way: 1: Hannover 96 +131; X: +245 Draw; Hamburger SV +271
Spread -0.5: Hannover 96 +135; Hamburger SV -125
Total +2.5: Over +122; Under -130
HANNOVER 96
After finishing at No. 2 spot in German second tier Bundesliga (Zweita) last year, Hannover team is having a remarkable start of the 2017 season in top tier Bundesliga so far. They currently rank at No. 3 spot in the league table with seven total points earned, same as Dortmund and Hoffenheim that are ranked in front of them because of favorable goal difference. After two initial wins, the team managed to snatch a 1:1 draw in a tough visit at Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg.
Against the Wolves head coach Breitenreiter started the duel in a 4-1-2-3 formation with team captain P. Tschauner as a goalkeeper. The defensive line consisted of M. Ostrzolek, M. Felipe, S. Sane and J. Korb while W. Anton operated as a defensive midfielder. M. Shmiedbach and M. Bakalorz were positioned just in front of him and behind the attacking trio F. Klaus, Jonathas, and M. Harnik. Martin Harnik scored the only goal for the team while Julian Korb was the only guy who got booked during the match. Besides Harnik who recorded three shots, most dangerous player for the opponents’ goalie was Felix Klaus who recorded two attempts. Korb and Salif Sane dominated the passing segment with 90.6% and 85.1% of passes completed.
So far, the Hannover team has 2-1-0 record and 3-1 goal difference. That presents the average of 1.0 goal scored and 0.33 goals conceded per match. Only one of these three duels played had more than 1.5 goals scored in total while other two games had exactly one goal scored in total.
Edgar Prib (cruciate ligament) will be out for a longer period of time and his return is expected in mid-February next year. Sebastian Maier’s (thigh), Manuel Schmiedbach’s (thigh), Pirmin Schwegler’s (knee), Miiko Albornoz’s (thigh) and Noah-Joel Sarenren-Baze’s (thigh) status is unknown while Uffe Bech (knee) is listed as day to day and he might be ready for Friday.
HAMBURGER SV
Hamburger’s fans have just received a big scare on the weekend as their team got defeated at home by RB Leipzig, 0:2. Hopefully, it won’t be the start of possible losing streak, something that the team was prone of last season. Thanks to two initial wins over FC Augsburg at home (1:0) and over FC Koln on the road (3:1), the team currently ranks seventh in the league table with six points earned and 2-0-1 record. Their goal difference after first three rounds is 4-3.
In the last round’s opening game against “The Bulls” (nickname for RB Leipzig), the team looked completely inferior to their opponent posting some very humble numbers. They had only 37% of ball possession and had 11 attempts towards opponents’ goal oppose to Leipzig’s 23. The fact that the visitors had 14 corner kicks oppose to Hamburg’s four speaks volumes.
Coach Gisdol started with the 4-2-3-1 formation but the Red Shorts just didn’t have enough quality to overcome Leipzig’s superior midfield corps. C. Mathenia started as a goalie while D. Diekmeier, K. Papadopoulos, G. Jung and R. Van Drongelen operated in the defense. Heavy-packed middle of the field that featured Walace and A. Ekdal as defensive midfielders and A. Hahn, F. Kostic, and L. Holtby as attacking midfielder couldn’t find the way to cope with star-packed Leipzig’s midfield corps. Alone in the attack and pretty much disconnected from his teammates was striker Bobby Wood who couldn’t accomplish much alone. They held on in the first half but two goals in the second half by N. Keita in the 67th minute and T. Werner 15 minutes before the final whistle sent the home fans into despair. Andre Hahn recorded most shots towards opponents’ goal (three) while Walace and Gian-Luca Waldschmidt posted two each. Walace was also the only player in the home team that got booked while Gideon Jung and Lewis Holtby dominated the passing segment with 83.3% and 70.8% passes completed.
Filip Kostic (thigh) who got injured on Friday is expected to be out until at least early October while Aaron Hunt (thigh) should be back in a few weeks. Nicolai Muller (cruciate ligament) will not see any action before late February next year while Walace’s (unknown) and Rick Van Drongelen’s (hip) status is unknown. Pierre-Michael Lasogga (thigh) is listed as day to day while Mats Kohlert’s (muscle) status is also unknown.
Hannover 96 vs. Hamburger SV – Match Prediction
In past decade these foes are pretty much equal when it comes to head to head duels. Both teams have five wins each while two matchups ended with a draw. Most recent matchups occurred in 2015/16 season when both teams won on the road (2:1 Hannover 96 win in Hamburg, 3:0 Hamburger SV team win in Hannover).
Hannover 96 is 4-1-1 against Hamburger SV in last six home duels including a 2013’s 5:1 demolition. Most recent Hannover’s home win over their next opponent occurred on September 14th, 2014 (2:0 win). This game has high potential to be the high-scoring one.
The home team hasn’t had a game over 2.5 goals in total, while the Wolves proved to be high effective on the road in a win over FC Koln (3:1). When it comes to the final result, I’m not sure that the hosts have enough juice to continue the undefeated run for long and it’s just the matter of time when the streak will end.
Still, saying that Hamburger SV will emerge victorious is also an overstatement. My best guess here is over 2.5 goals in total and a draw. On the other side, if I had to pick a winner, I would put my money on Hannover 96.
My pick: Over 2.5 (+122)
Additional Pick: Draw (+245)
