The Harvard Crimson (11-15) travel to Yale to play the Bulldogs (18-6) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. The game starts at 7:00 pm ET on Friday, Feb. 26 and will air on FS1.
The Bulldogs won big over Penn 79-58 the last time they played. Justin Sears was the game’s leading scorer with 31 points on 12-for-17 shooting. The Crimson are coming off a 76-74 win against Cornell in their last outing. Tommy McCarthy led the team in scoring with 21 points on 5-for-16 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium as Yale ranks 286th in the nation in possessions per game (67.0 possessions per game), while Harvard is 289th (66.9). Furthermore, the 280th-ranked offense of the Crimson (offensive efficiency of 100.2) will face a tough test against the 20th-ranked defense of the Bulldogs (defensive efficiency of 94.9).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Bulldogs won the first game 67-55. Zena Edosomwan played a big role with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
The Bulldogs come into this game 18-6 Straight Up (SU) and 9-4-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 0-8-1 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bulldogs have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 64.3 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 75.5 points per game. The Bulldogs have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 19th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 40.7 per game, while the Crimson rank 127th in the nation with 37.1 per game. Turning to the defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Bulldogs, who allow only 63.7 points per game. Yale’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Bulldogs allow a .404 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country.
Over on the other bench, Harvard has a SU record of 11-15 and an ATS record of 5-13-1. Most recently, Harvard is 7-2-1 ATS over the last 10 games. During the last 10 games, they averaged 78.0 PPG, above their 67.0 PPG season average. Harvard’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 6.0 shots from the three-point line per game. When it comes to defending the rim, the Crimson are one of the best in the nation with an average of 4.9 blocks per game.
In their previous meeting this season, Yale beat Harvard, but the win was not enough to overtake Harvard in their recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 3-7 SU over the last few meetings. At 5-5, they are even ATS. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Yale held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. Harvard never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Yale, ATS Winner – Yale
Notes
Yale averages 75.5 points per game, placing the team just 107th in the nation. Harvard ranks 61st in points allowed, giving up 67.2 points per game.
Yale averages 82.1 points per home game (ranked 43rd). Harvard allows 72.3 points per away game (ranked 88th).
In its last game, Yale won by a margin of 21 points. Harvard is 4-1 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Yale has an 11-2 record in blowouts.
The Yale Bulldogs rank 50th for their offensive rating of 112.6. The Harvard Crimson have a defensive rating of 100.0 (ranked 96th).
The Yale Bulldogs average 67.0 possessions and 1.126 points per possession in games this season. The Harvard Crimson average fewer possessions with 66.9, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.002.
The Yale Bulldogs average an effective field goal percentage of 52.5% this season. The Harvard Crimson have a losing record of 1-4 when opponents have an eFG% of 52.5% or greater.
On average, the Yale Bulldogs attempt 16.0 three point field goals per game and the Harvard Crimson attempt 19.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Yale has a winning 5-2 record, while Harvard is 7-5.
Yale ranks 68th in blocks per game with 4.5 and Harvard ranks 38th with 4.9 blocks per game.
Yale is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 16th. Harvard ranks just 117th in defensive rebounds.
The Harvard Crimson make an average of 5.2 steals per game. When the Yale Bulldogs give up 5 or more steals, they are a solid 14-6.
