NBA Preview: John Wall has averaged 32 points per game at home in this series, while the Wizards have won 27 of of their last 32 home games..
#5 Atlanta Hawks (45-41) at #4 Washington Wizards (51-35), Wednesday, 6 p.m. EST
Line: Wizards -5.5. Total 212.5.
Series: Tied 2-2.
This series seems to be taking the same path as the Grizzlies / Spurs series. Memphis and San Antonio have played nine games this year against each other. The home team has won all nine games. The home team has also covered the spread in all five playoff games.
The Hawks and Wizards will play game #9 against the other this season on Wednesday night. The home team has won 7 of the 8 games. Furthermore, The home team has won and covered the spread in all four playoff games.
The Wizards played much better in Game 4 at Atlanta after being throttled in Game 3. Washington led by as many as nine points in the first half, but the Hawks made a pair of nice runs to erase that lead and take a 9-point lead of their own into halftime. The Wizards erased that 9-point deficit and tied the game going into the fourth quarter. However, the Hawks outscored Washington by 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 111-101 and even the series.
Atlanta easily covered the Vegas number in both of their home playoff games. Washington barely covered the Vegas number in their two home playoff games.
John Wall and Bradley Beal seemed to be sending some subliminal messages to Washington coach Scott Brooks during their post-game news conference after Game 4. Both players mentioned using up a lot of energy coming from behind in the fourth quarter. They were referring to their bench being outscored 12-4 in the first three minutes of the fourth quarter to put the Wizards behind 89-81. The message seemed to be that they were not brought back into the game fast enough, therefore allowing the deficit to jump to eight points.
Wall is averaging 28.8 points per game (PPG), 10 assists per game (APG) and 4.5 rebounds per game (RPG), while Beal is averaging 24.3 PPG, 2.3 APG and 3.8 RPG in this series. Wall is averaging 32 PPG in his two home games. Atlanta’s Paul Millsap is averaging 23.5 PPG, 4.3 AGP and 8.8 RPG in the series.
I expect the Wizards to answer those two road losses and protect home court on Wednesday. Washington has won 27 of their last 32 home games. They have good free-throw shooters, so if they have s small lead in the final minute and a foul-fest occurs, they can get over the 5.5-point Vegas line.
This series has been one of my modifications to the NBA Zig-Zag Theory. I am not going to zig-zag after every loss. I am zig-zagging between home venues. Another words, I play the home team in each of the first two home games. Then I zig (or zag, whichever you prefer) to the other team for their two next two home games. I have picked the home team to win and cover every game of this series and I am doing so again tonight.
My playoff record is 7-2 against the spread.
My pick:
Washington Wizards -5.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good luck.
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