Dallas Keuchel (7-12, 4.76 ERA) and the Houston Astros (63-60) are in Baltimore to meet Yovani Gallardo (4-4, 5.18 ERA) and the Orioles (67-55) in a game that could have plenty of offense. This is the last of a four-game series at Camden Yards. The Astros won the last game 12-2, and Houston leads the series 2-1. The game gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 21 and will air on RTSW and MAS2.
In his last start, Gallardo pitched 5.0 innings, giving up three runs, striking out two and walking five in a 5-3 loss to the Red Sox. Manny Machado (.303, 84 Rs, 28 HRs, 74 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. The Astros were also unsuccessful the last time Keuchel pitched. He did not do well, pitching 5.0 innings, allowing six runs, striking out seven and walking one in an 8-5 loss to the Cardinals. Jose Altuve (.366, 89 Rs, 20 HRs, 81 RBIs, 26 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Astros, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Baltimore is a +111 underdog in this game, and the Over/Under (O/U) is nine runs. The Orioles perform poorly as an underdog with a 22-33 record, but have fared better with the overall money line (+1,166). Over the last 10 games, they have performed poorly when playing as the underdog (1-4). The Orioles have one of the most prolific home offenses in the entire AL, averaging 5.1 runs per game. The Orioles rank fourth in the AL in hits with 9.0 per game. Below average play has been the norm lately for the Baltimore pitchers. The Orioles have given up an average of 5.7 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.5 runs per game.
Across the field, the Astros have a record of 45-43 when they are favored and are -1,248 overall with the money line. During the last 10 games, they averaged 6.8 runs per game, above their 4.5 season average. The Astros are known for their bats, hitting 406 extra base hits. The Astros average 3.5 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Houston pitchers. They allowed 6.7 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.2. The Houston pitching staff has been an intimidating group this year, averaging 8.7 strikeouts per game.
The Astros had the upper hand against the Orioles in their previous six games this season, earning a 5-1 record. This game will feature Keuchel (LHP) on the mound against the Orioles, who have a 17-17 record when they take on a left-handed starter. The right-handed Gallardo will take the mound against the Astros, who have a 43-39 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston has won 55% (31-25) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Baltimore has won 60% (32-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Astros are coming into this meeting after a high-scoring game where they scored an impressive 12 runs. The Orioles have a 0-4 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they are outhit, the Astros are 9-52. The Orioles have a 17-42 record when opponents outhit them.
Baltimore ranks at the top of the league when it comes to home runs this season with 190. Houston ranks in the top half at 13th with 153.
Ranking 12th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.50 per game. Baltimore ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.03.
Ranking 14th, Houston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.745). Baltimore ranks in the top five at fourth with an OPS of .775.
When the Astros allow at least one home run, they are 40-39. When the Orioles allow one or more homers, they have a 39-43 record.
