Collin McHugh (7-8, 4.73 ERA) and the Houston Astros (57-54) are in Minnesota to go up against Tyler Duffey (6-8, 6.21 ERA) and the Twins (45-66) in a game that could have plenty of offense. This is the first of a four-game series at Target Field. The game gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 8 and will air on RTSW and FSN.
In his most recent outing, Duffey pitched 6.0 innings, giving up five runs and striking out six in a 13-5 victory over the Indians. Max Kepler (.259, 39 Rs, 15 HRs, 49 RBIs, 4 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. The Astros were unsuccessful the last time McHugh pitched. He tossed 6.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out 10 and walking one in a 3-1 loss to the Blue Jays. Jose Altuve (.356, 80 Rs, 19 HRs, 67 RBIs, 25 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Astros, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
Minnesota, a +130 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Houston. The matchup currently has a nine-run Over/Under (O/U). When playing as the underdog, the Twins have a 35-52 record and overall money line at -1,056. They are 6-2 as the underdog over their last 10 games. Minnesota has averaged 6.5 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.6. The Twins are a dangerous hitting team with 366 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB.
On the other side, the Astros have a record of 41-40 when they are favored and are -1,050 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, the team is 2-8 SU and has played poorly as the favorite with a 2-5 record. The Astros will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Houston’s run production has dropped to 2.3 runs per game, compared to 4.6 for the duration of the season. The Astros have racked up 80 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league. Houston’s pitching staff and defense as a whole have been firing on all cylinders so far, averaging an AL-best 4.0 runs allowed per game. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the AL with an average of 8.7 strikeouts per game.
In their previous three games this season, the Astros have a 2-1 record. The Twins will take on a right-hander (McHugh) in this game. They have done very poorly against right-handed starting pitchers this season (30-51), especially at home where they have a 14-26 record. The right-handed Duffey will take the mound against the Astros, who have a 42-34 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
The Twins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are coming in with a 34-19 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Twins are 8-54. The Astros have a 9-48 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling in the top half of the league based on total home runs this season, Minnesota ranks 15th with 133 homers and Houston is 13th with 134.
Ranking 14th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.26 per game. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 8.86.
Ranking 18th, Houston is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.730). Minnesota ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .752.
The Astros are 35-34 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Twins are 33-54 when they allow at least one homer.
