Vincent Velasquez (0-0, 3.72 ERA) and Edinson Volquez (8-4, 3.18 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Houston Astros (46-34) and the Kansas City Royals (44-30) at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won the last game 4-0 and Houston leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and can be seen on FSN-KC and ROOT-SW.
Velasquez pitched 6.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 3-2 defeat to the Yankees. George Springer (.263, 42 Rs, 13 HRs, 29 RBIs, 13 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Volquez is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA when pitching against the Astros. He is up against a below-average Houston offense which is hitting just .240 this season. Lorenzo Cain (.296, 44 Rs, 6 HRs, 33 RBIs, 15 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Royals, going 3 for 4 yesterday.
Houston is a slim -115 favorite at home against Kansas City. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Astros have an overall money line of +864 and a record as the favorite of 22-18. The Astros lead the MLB in home runs with 113. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 61 bases. Turning to the pitchers, the Astros are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.17 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Kansas City has a 20-14 record and an overall money line of +1,409. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 6-4 record SU. The Royals allow 3.6 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 4.7 runs per game during that span. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Royals are third in the AL with an average of 7.9 hits allowed per game.
The Astros have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Astros have a 29-18 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Volquez takes the mound. Velasquez (RHP) will be on the hill against the Royals, who have a very good 32-17 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston has won 59% (19-13) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Kansas City has won 68% (19-9) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Astros are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Royals have a 1-10 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Astros have a slight leg up on the Royals, as the Astros have won their last three games while the Royals have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 32-9. The Royals have a 38-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 16th in runs, Kansas City has earned 317 this season. Houston ranks third with 356 runs.
Ranking 30th, Kansas City is at the bottom of the league in walks, notching 156 this season. Houston ranks in the top five at fifth with 250.
The Astros are 36-20 when they hit at least one home run. The Royals perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 29-13 record.
