Collin McHugh (14-7, 3.92 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (6-8, 3.85 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Houston Astros (73-61) and the Minnesota Twins (69-64) at Minute Maid Park. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 4 and can be seen on FSN, RTSW and MLBN.
McHugh pitched 6.1 innings in his last outing, surrendering two runs, striking out eight and walking two in a 6-2 win over the Yankees. George Springer (.264, 43 Rs, 13 HRs, 29 RBIs, 14 SBs) went 1 for 2 Wednesday with one run and one stolen base. Pelfrey went 3.2 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out two and walking two in a 4-1 defeat to the Astros in his most recent start. Brian Dozier (.243, 90 Rs, 26 HRs, 68 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday.
Houston is a -178 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Astros have an overall money line of +553 and a record as the favorite of 43-33. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 100 bases. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Astros, who have a team ERA of only 3.30. The Astros are the second-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Astros, who rank fifth in the AL in strikeouts per game with 7.8.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 53-53 record and an overall money line of +2,031. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 7-2 record, and an 8-2 record SU.
The Twins lead the season series, 2-1. The Astros have a 47-40 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Pelfrey takes the mound. McHugh (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 44-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Hou, O/U – Over
Notes
Minnesota has won 52% (24-22) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 59% (30-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Twins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Astros have a 12-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Twins are 14-54. The Astros have a 13-43 record when opponents outhit them.
Minnesota ranks in the bottom half of the league at 17th when it comes to home runs, hitting 126 this season. Houston ranks in the top five at second with 180.
Houston and Minnesota both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Houston sits at 15th with 8.12 hits per game and Minnesota ranks 13th with 8.36.
Ranking 21st, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.708). Houston ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .731.
When the Twins allow at least one home run, they are 37-50. When the Astros allow one or more homers, they have a 26-42 record.
