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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Free Pick 07/31/18

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros will pay a visit to Seattle to take on their divisional rival Mariners at Safeco Field. The action will begin at 10:10 p.m. ET and ATTSN Southwest is in line to broadcast the game.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Odds

Seattle (+115) is the home-team underdog to Houston (-125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. Runline odds sit at +120 for taking the Astros -1.5 runs and -140 for the Mariners +1.5.

The Mariners are 61-43 straight up (SU) and 53-52 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 14.6 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 3.0 units (ATS). Seattle has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Astros have gone 67-39 SU this year and are 53-54 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 7.3 units for moneyline bettors and 7.3 units ATS. Houston has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.

Seattle games have an over/under record of 50-53-2 in 2018. The Astros have an over/under record of 48-53-6.

The right-handed Charlie Morton will get the start for the visiting Astros. Morton (11-2, 2.89 ERA) has recorded 151 strikeouts in 118.1 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Seattle this year.

The Mariners are going with righty Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15 ERA), who’s got 77 strikeouts and 29 walks, as well as a 1.30 WHIP. Leake is 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 7.50 ERA in one start against Houston this year.

Seattle’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 4.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 38 games against divisional opponents, Mariners starters have an ERA of 4.28 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.53.

The Seattle offense has produced 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .244/.305/.431 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Dee Gordon have led the Mariners’ hitters this year. Segura is slashing .317/.347/.446 with seven home runs, 49 RBIs, 68 runs and 15 stolen bases, while Gordon’s line is .290/.309/.354 with 113 hits, 22 RBIs, 47 runs and 24 stolen bases.

For the visiting squad, Houston’s pitching staff allowed 3.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 10.36 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.27, along with a WHIP of 1.09 and a K/9 of 10.75.

Astros hitters have slashed .257/.334/.428 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Houston’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, who collectively have belted 31 home runs. Altuve is slashing .329/.392/.464 with nine home runs, 46 RBIs, 64 runs and 14 stolen bases, while Bregman (.280/.386/.535) has produced 22 homers, 70 RBIs and 71 runs scored.

The Astros have gained 3.3 units and are 36-31 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 31 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mariners have netted 19.7 units and are 36-35 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 32 that went under the total.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The over has cashed in three of Houston’s last seven outings.

The Astros have lost four of their last five games SU while the Mariners have dropped three of their last four.

Houston has recorded 18.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.4 over its last five.

The Astros have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mariners have hit nine over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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