In the last of a four-game series between the Houston Astros (17-7) and the Seattle Mariners (17-7) at Minute Maid Park, Roberto Hernandez (1-2, 3.80 ERA) and J.A. Happ (2-1, 2.30 ERA) take the mound. The Astros won the last game 11-4, extending a nine-game winning streak. Houston can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. The game starts at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 3 and will air on ROOT-NW and ROOT-SW.
Hernandez is 2-5 with a 3.47 ERA against the Mariners in his career, and faces a struggling Seattle offense that’s hitting just .235 on the year. Jake Marisnick (.391, 13 Rs, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs, 9 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Astros, Happ is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA, 22 strikeouts and five walks. Nelson Cruz (.347, 17 Rs, 13 HRs, 25 RBIs, 1 SB) has been hitting the ball well for the Mariners, going 3 for 4 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and two RBIs.
Houston is a slight +103 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Astros perform well as an underdog with a 12-4 record and have an overall money line of +1,133. They are 9-1 as the underdog over their last 10 games. Houston has averaged 6.6 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.7. The Astros lead the majors in home runs with 37. The Astros are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 31 steals. Turning to the pitching staff, the Astros rank second in the AL in ERA with a 3.04 team average. The Astros don’t allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.05 WHIP.
Across the field, the Mariners have a record of 8-10 when they are favored and are -634 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 9-8 SU and 7-7 as the favorite. Seattle’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 3.1 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 4.3. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the AL with an average of 8.1 strikeouts per game.
The Astros had the upper hand against the Mariners in their previous six games this season, earning a 5-1 record. The Astros will take on a left-hander (Happ) in this game. They have done very well against left-handed starting pitchers this season (7-2), especially at home where they have a 4-1 record. The right-handed Hernandez will take the mound against the Mariners, who have a 7-9 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Seattle recorded at least two errors for the second time this season.
The Astros are 3-0 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 2-3 in such matchups.
The Mariners are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Astros have a record of 2-0 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Mariners are 4-10. The Astros have a 3-3 record when opponents outhit them.
Houston ranks at the top of the league when it comes to home runs with 37 this season. Seattle ranks in the top five at fourth with 31.
Ranking 12th, Seattle is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.96 per game. Houston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.30.
Ranking 17th, Seattle is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.687). Houston ranks in the top five at fifth with an OPS of .762.
When the Mariners allow at least one home run, they are 3-10. When the Astros allow one or more homers, they have a 5-5 record.
