Dallas Keuchel (18-8, 2.51 ERA) starts for the Houston Astros (81-74) as they square off against Martin Perez (3-5, 5.21 ERA) and the Texas Rangers (84-70) in the last of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won the last game 9-7 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 27 and can be seen on FSSW and RTSW.
Keuchel pitched 7.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking one in a 6-3 win over the Angels. Carlos Correa (.282, 48 Rs, 21 HRs, 61 RBIs, 12 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 3 for 4 with three runs, two home runs, and three RBIs. Perez went 4.0 innings, surrendering four runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking three in an 8-6 defeat to the Athletics in his most recent start. Shin-soo Choo (.275, 86 Rs, 20 HRs, 77 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Houston, a big -245 favorite, takes on Texas. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs for this matchup. The Astros have an overall money line of -510 and a record as the favorite of 51-43. Within its division, Houston has a 19-26 record as favorite and a 35-37 record SU. The Astros are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 498. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 113 bases. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses that come to Minute Maid Park have been stifled by the Astros, who have a team ERA of only 3.14 at home. The Astros are the fifth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.20 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Astros, who rank fifth in the AL in strikeouts per home game with 8.5.
In games where it is the underdog, Texas has a 59-54 record and an overall money line of +3,044. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, the Rangers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.6 runs per game by averaging 7.4 during that stretch.
The Rangers have controlled the season series, 13-5. The Astros have a 28-28 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Perez takes the mound. Keuchel (LHP) will be on the hill against the Rangers, who have a 31-28 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Hou, O/U – Over
Notes
Texas has won 50% (34-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 57% (36-27) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Rangers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are heading in with a 40-22 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 59-18. The Rangers have a 63-10 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking ninth, Houston is in the top 10 of the league in runs, scoring 681 this season. Texas ranks in the top five at fourth with 707.
Houston and Texas both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. Houston sits at 10th with 465 this season and Texas ranks ninth with 472.
When the Astros hit at least one home run, they are 68-45, well-matched with the Rangers who are 62-29 when hitting one or more homers.
