Dallas Keuchel (4-0, 1.39 ERA) starts for the Houston Astros (22-13) as they square off against R.A. Dickey (1-4, 5.00 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (17-19) in the second of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won the last game 6-4 and Houston leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 15 and can be seen on RSN and ROOT-SW.
Keuchel is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his appearances against the Blue Jays, but goes up against a quality Toronto offense which is batting .259 this season. Jose Altuve (.333, 19 Rs, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs, 13 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 3 with two runs and two stolen bases. Dickey is 2-4 with a 4.52 ERA when pitching against the Astros. He takes on a below-average Houston offense which is hitting just .226 this season. Josh Donaldson (.312, 27 Rs, 8 HRs, 24 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Houston is a -127 favorite against Toronto and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Astros have an overall money line of +811 and a record as the favorite of 6-7. Houston is a disappointing 1-4 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Astros have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.7 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.3 runs per game. The Astros are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 109. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 38 bases. Houston’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 4.9 runs per game, well above its season average of 3.9. The Astros are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.12 so far this season.
As for their opponent, Toronto is coming in with an overall money line of -197 and a disappointing record of 7-12 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-4 record, and a 5-5 record SU. The Blue Jays have a dynamic offense, ranking second in the league with 120 extra base hits.
The Astros have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Astros have a 12-9 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Dickey takes the mound. Keuchel (LHP) will be on the hill against the Blue Jays, who have a 5-1 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Neither Houston nor Toronto has lost a game in extra innings. The Astros are 3-0 in such matchups, and the Blue Jays are 1-0.
The Blue Jays managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are heading in with a 4-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 2-15. The Astros have a 7-9 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking sixth in home runs, Toronto has hit 42 this season. Houston ranks second with 49 home runs.
Ranking 14th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.53 per game. Toronto ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.69.
Ranking 15th, Houston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.708). Toronto ranks in the top five at fifth with an OPS of .760.
When the Blue Jays allow at least one home run, they are 9-14. When the Astros allow one or more homers, they have a 9-7 record.
