Roberto Hernandez (1-3, 3.86 ERA) and the Houston Astros (21-13) meet Drew Hutchison (3-0, 6.69 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (17-18) in the first of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 14 and will air on RSN and ROOT-SW.
Hernandez has a 4.24 ERA and a 3-3 record in his career against the Blue Jays, and is up against a solid Toronto offense that’s hitting .260 on the year. Jose Altuve (.326, 17 Rs, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs, 11 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. In his career against the Astros, Hutchison is 0-0 with a 12.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and two strikeouts. Russell Martin (.288, 22 Rs, 7 HRs, 19 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Houston is a small -102 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Astros have a winning record of 15-6 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of +811. Houston has averaged 2.7 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.3. The Astros are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 36 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Houston’s pitching staff will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent struggles. The Astros have given up an average of 4.9 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 3.9 runs per game. The Astros lead the league in WHIP at 1.12.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Blue Jays come into this game in an interesting position. They have a negative money line (-197) but have won more than 60 percent of games played as the favorite (10-6). Over the past 10 matchups, they are 5-5 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 4-1 record. Toronto is one of the top hitting teams in the league with 116 extra base hits.
This game will feature Hutchison (RHP) on the mound against the Astros, who have a 12-9 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Hernandez will take the mound against the Blue Jays, who have a 12-17 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games.
Houston is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston’s last 18 games at home.
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto.
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto.
When the Astros and the Blue Jays play into extra innings, both teams are undefeated. In such games, Houston has a 3-0 record and Toronto is 1-0.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Blue Jays are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Astros have a 4-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 11-4. The Blue Jays have a 15-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking first in runs, Toronto has earned 185 this season. Houston ranks 12th with 145 runs.
Houston and Toronto both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. Houston sits at seventh with 116 this season and Toronto ranks 10th with 114.
When the Astros hit at least one home run, they are 16-8, well-matched with the Blue Jays who are 14-7 when hitting one or more homers.
