Collin McHugh (4-1, 3.50 ERA) and the Houston Astros (24-13) go up against Mark Buehrle (5-2, 5.54 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (17-21) in the last of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won the last game 6-5 and Houston can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. The game gets underway at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 17 and will air on RSN and ROOT-SW.
In his most recent outing, McHugh pitched 4.2 innings, allowing three runs (four unearned), striking out three and walking two in an 8-1 loss to the Giants. Jake Marisnick (.296, 16 Rs, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 9 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. In his career against the Astros, Buehrle is 4-0 with a 0.89 ERA. He gets a struggling Houston offense that’s batting just .230. Josh Donaldson (.311, 28 Rs, 8 HRs, 25 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Houston is a -129 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Astros are 8-7 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +1,011. The Astros will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In the last 10 games, Houston has only averaged 3.3 runs per game compared to the 4.4 they’ve averaged on the season. The Astros are a dangerous hitting team with 119 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking second in all of baseball with 38 steals. Houston’s pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 4.9 during that span, compared to its 3.9 season average. The Astros don’t allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.13 WHIP.
Moving on to the away team, the Blue Jays come into this game with a weak win percentage of .333 when playing as the underdog (7-14) and an overall money line of -403. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 1-5 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 4-6. Toronto is one of the top hitting teams in the league with 125 extra base hits.
The previous three games have all gone Houston’s way. This game will feature Buehrle (LHP) on the mound against the Astros, who have a 9-4 record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Blue Jays will be the right-hander McHugh. They sport a 12-18 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Toronto has won 57% (8-6) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 69% (11-5) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Astros managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are coming in with a 7-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Astros have a slight leg up on the Blue Jays, as the Astros have won their last four games while the Blue Jays have lost their last four.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 14-4. The Blue Jays have a 15-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto tops the league in runs with 198 this season. Houston ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 165.
Houston and Toronto both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. Houston sits at seventh with 126 this season and Toronto ranks eighth with 125.
When the Astros hit at least one home run, they are 18-8, well-matched with the Blue Jays who are 14-9 when hitting one or more homers.
