The Golden State Warriors (2-3) will attempt to extend the series when they take on the Houston Rockets (3-2) at ORACLE Arena in game six of the Western Conference Finals. The game will air on TNT at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 26, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213.5 points with Golden State set as an 11-point favorite.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Prediction
Curry put up 22 points, seven rebounds and six assists in game five, in which the Warriors lost 98-94, unable to cover as 1-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 192 points, which was 27.5 points below the projected point total of 219.5 points. The Rockets had a much better turnover percentage (9.8 vs. 16.3) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (17.8 vs. 11.1).
This matchup pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Golden State currently ranks second in offensive efficiency and Houston is fifth in defensive efficiency. The Rockets should have an edge in terms of ball security. They rank 4th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent), while the Warriors force the seventh-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.1 percent).
Houston heads into the game with records of 76-21 straight up (SU) and 50-45-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 56.7 percent of their games have ended under the projected point total.
Golden State has a phenomenal 68-29 SU record, but they have a hard time covering the spread (40-54-3 ATS). Just over half of Warriors games have also finished under the total.
For the playoffs, the Rockets are 1-4 ATS with four unders and one over while the Warriors are 14-10 with 14 unders, nine overs and one push
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 28-18-1 ATS on the road with 29 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
Golden State is 19-28-2 ATS at home with 25 unders, 23 overs and 1 push.
Golden State is 20-7 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Houston is 38-3.
When reaching the century mark, the Rockets are 71-15 and the Warriors are 64-17.
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (28.7) while Houston ranks 28th (21.2).
The Rockets average 8.4 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
Houston ranks seventh in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (13.3).
The Rockets rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Warriors rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.1).
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (18.8) while Houston ranks 17th (11.1).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (41.9) while the Warriors rank 16th (29.0).
Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.1) while Houston ranks 12th (4.9).
The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Rockets have been outscored by an average of 5.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Houston has defeated opponents by an average of 7.9 points.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (4.4 below their season average).
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