The Minnesota Timberwolves (0-2) square off with the Houston Rockets (2-0) at Target Center in game three of the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game will air on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 21, 2018.
Houston is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 214.5 points.
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
Paul scored a game-high 27 points in game two, in which the Rockets beat the Timberwolves 102-82, covering as 10.5-point favorites. He also had eight assists. The game finished with a total of 184 points, which was 32 points below the projected point total of 216 points. The Rockets had a much better turnover percentage (7.9 vs. 15.2) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (21.8 vs. 17.6).
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the high-octane offense of Minnesota takes on the top-notch defense of Houston. The Timberwolves rank fourth in offensive efficiency, while the Rockets are fifth in defensive efficiency.
Houston heads into the contest with records of 67-17 straight up (SU) and 42-40-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 58.3 percent of their games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Minnesota owns records of 47-37 SU and 39-42-3 ATS. In opposition of Houston, games featuring the Timberwolves have a slight tendency to go over the total (53.6 percent).
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 24-16-1 ATS on the road with 25 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
At home, Minnesota is 21-19-1 ATS with 24 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
Houston is 33-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Minnesota is 19-4.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Rockets are 64-12 and the Timberwolves are 44-23.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.4) while Minnesota ranks last (22.5).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while the Rockets rank 28th (40.8).
Houston ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while Minnesota ranks 15th (4.8).
The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Rockets rank 10th (7.4).
Houston ranks 16th in fast break points per game (11.4) while Minnesota ranks 25th (9.7).
The Timberwolves rank 19th in assists per game (22.6) while the Rockets rank 27th (21.5).
Minnesota averages 17.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Houston ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.6).
The Timberwolves rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while the Rockets rank sixth (42.2).
Minnesota averages 13.5 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Houston ranks ninth in second chance points allowed per game (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 1-4 ATS with 5 unders.
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, down from 8.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 104.2 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.4 points per game (6.8 below their season average).
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