The Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2) meet the Houston Rockets (2-1) at Target Center in game four of the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, April 23, 2018, and will air on TNT.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 219 points with Houston set as a 5.5-point favorite.
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Prediction
Harden scored a game-high 29 points in game three, in which the Rockets lost 121-105, unable to cover as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 226 points, which was 11.5 points above the projected point total of 214.5 points. The Timberwolves had a better turnover percentage (6.6 vs. 9.8) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (20.0 vs. 17.5).
This matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair as two of the league’s best offenses face off. Minnesota ranks fourth with 111.3 points per 100 possessions and Houston is second (112.7).
Houston heads into the game with records of 67-18 straight up (SU) and 42-41-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 49 of their 85 games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 48-37 SU and 40-42-3 ATS. Of the Timberwolves’ 85 games, 46 have finished over the O/U total.
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Free Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Houston is 24-17-1 ATS with 25 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
Minnesota is 22-19-1 ATS at home with 25 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
Houston is 33-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Minnesota is 19-4.
When reaching the century mark, the Rockets are 64-13 and the Timberwolves are 45-23.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.4) while Minnesota ranks last (22.5).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while the Rockets rank 28th (40.8).
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while Houston ranks 11th (7.4).
The Timberwolves rank 17th in assists per game (22.7) while the Rockets rank 27th (21.4).
Houston ranks 17th in fast break points per game (11.3) while Minnesota ranks 25th (9.7).
The Rockets rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while the Timberwolves rank 11th (4.7).
Minnesota ranks fifth in points off turnovers per game (17.4) while Houston ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.6).
The Timberwolves rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while the Rockets rank seventh (42.2).
Minnesota averages 13.5 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Houston ranks ninth in second chance points allowed per game (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Rockets have scored an equal number of points as their opponents. For the season, Houston has defeated opponents by an average of 8.3 points.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 105.8 points per game (3.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (5.0 below their season average).
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