The Houston Rockets (9-11) head to San Antonio to play the Spurs (10-11) in a game that will likely be low scoring. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 30, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Prediction
The Rockets are hoping to rebound after not being able to cover as 5.5-point favorites in their 128-108 loss to the Dallas Mavericks in their last matchup. The total points for the game (236) were well over the O/U total of 217.5. Dallas’ 0.224 free throw rate was their largest strength over Houston, who had a mark of 0.172. The Mavericks’ mark was below their season average of 0.226, while the Rockets’ was below their season average of 0.211. With 25 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds, James Harden led the way for Houston with his zeroth triple-double of the season.
In the Spurs’ previous game, they lost big to the Minnesota Timberwolves, 128-89. They were unable to cover as 5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (217) finished just over the projected point total of 215.5. Minnesota’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over San Antonio. The Timberwolves posted a mark of 7.0 (better than their season average of 11.7), while the Spurs had a rate of 16.4 (above their season average of 10.6). Jakob Poeltl had a good game for San Antonio, leading the team in scoring with 14 points on 7-for-10 shooting.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. LaMarcus Aldridge scored a game-high 27 points in the first matchup, in which the Spurs, who were 3.5-point underdogs, beat the Rockets 96-89. He also put up 10 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 185 points, which was 28 points below the projected point total of 213 points. San Antonio had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.514 vs. 0.383). Houston, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (7.2 vs. 14.9).
Houston heads into the game with records of 9-11 straight up (SU) and 7-13 against the spread (ATS). Of the Rockets’ 20 games, 12 have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, San Antonio owns records of 10-11 SU and 10-11 ATS. Games involving the Spurs also have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (57.1 percent).
Harden and Clint Capela have played well over the last five games for Houston. Harden has averaged 41 points,10.2 assists,2.2 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Capela has put up 22 points,15.2 rebounds,3.8 blocks a game during that span.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams square off. San Antonio ranks 26th in possessions per game (100.8) and Houston is 28th (99.1).
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 4-7 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 5 unders.
San Antonio is 5-4 ATS at home with 5 overs and 4 unders.
Houston is 4-2 when they allow under 100 points, while San Antonio is 4-1.
The Spurs are 9-6 when they reach the century mark, while the Rockets are 7-7.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.0) while San Antonio ranks 29th (24.7).
The Rockets rank seventh in blocks per game (6.0) while the Spurs rank 25th (4.1).
Houston ranks 11th in steals per game (8.2) while San Antonio ranks 28th (6.0).
The Rockets rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (10.7) while the Spurs rank 20th (14.1).
Houston ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (21.6) while San Antonio ranks 20th (24.7).
The Spurs rank 15 in rebounds per game (45.04761904761905) while the Rockets rank 27 (40.7).
Houston ranks 16 in points off turnovers per game (16.95) while San Antonio ranks 27 (14.285714285714286).
The Spurs rank 14 in second chance points per game (13.714285714285714) while the Rockets rank 21 in second chance points allowed per game (13.95).
Houston ranks 25 in points in the paint per game (44.1) while San Antonio ranks 27 (42.19047619047619).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five outings, Houston is 0-5 ATS with 5 overs.
San Antonio is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.2, up from 2.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 108.0 points per game (0.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 114.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average).
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