Southwest Division foes will battle when the Dallas Mavericks (39-38) face off against the Houston Rockets (38-39) at the American Airlines Center. The game starts at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday, Apr. 6 and can be seen on ESP, FSW and RSW.
The Mavericks beat the Timberwolves 88-78 on Sunday. J.J. Barea was the team’s leading scorer with 21 points on 8-for-19 shooting. The Rockets, meanwhile, are coming off a 118-110 win over the Thunder on Sunday. James Harden led the game in scoring by accumulating 41 points on 12-for-25 shooting.
Over the last five games, Barea has really been playing well for the Mavericks. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.6 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. The Mavericks commit the second-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.6%), while the pesky defense of Dallas forces the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.7%).
The Rockets lead the season series against the Mavericks two games to one, including a 115-104 win the last time these two teams met. Chandler Parsons scored a game-high with 31 points.
The Mavericks are looking to build on their records of 39-38 Straight Up (SU) and 41-34-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS against divisional opponents. Dallas has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a superb .795. The Mavericks, sporting the fourth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA (1.82), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Expect Dallas to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Rockets, who are one of the most foul-prone teams in the league with an average of 22.5 fouls per game.
Over on the other bench, the Rockets have 38-39 SU and 33-43-1 ATS records. Houston has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. They sport the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the league, averaging 106.0 points per game. Houston is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league, hitting 10.0 shots from three-point range per game. Switching gears to Houston’s defense, the Rockets are a terror in the passing lanes, averaging an NBA-best 10.0 steals per game. Houston is the second-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.7 per game.
Houston beat Dallas in their most recent meeting this season, bringing its SU record in the past 10 games to 7-3. Furthermore, with a 7-3 record, the Rockets have the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Dal
Notes
Dallas ranks 13th in points per game with 102.8, while Houston ranks 26th in points allowed with an average of 106.7 given up.
On average, Dallas scores 105.1 points per home game (ranked 12th). Houston ranks 27th in points allowed per road game with 108.7.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Dallas Mavericks are a tremendous 25-5. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Houston Rockets have an underachieving record of 2-16.
The Dallas Mavericks have a subpar 14-33 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Houston Rockets are 36-23 when they hit triple digits.
The Rockets have a defensive rating of 106.8 (ranked 23rd). The Mavericks rank 10th for their offensive rating of 105.3.
With 97.6 possessions and 1.053 points per possession, the Dallas Mavericks perform worse on both metrics than the Houston Rockets. Houston averages 100.3 possessions and 1.057 points per possession.
Houston has an average effective field goal percentage of 51.2% (ranked seventh in the league}. Dallas is an abysmal 7-25 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, the Dallas Mavericks attempt 28.0 three point field goals per game and the Houston Rockets attempt 30.0 per game. In games where they attempt at least 25 threes, Dallas has a split 28-28 record, while Houston is 32-33.
The Dallas Mavericks rank fourth with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.82, while the Houston Rockets rank near the bottom of the league at 26th with an A/TO of 1.44.
The Dallas Mavericks rebound 43.1 times per game and are ranked 19th. Ranked 20th, the Houston Rockets rebound 43.1 times per game.
The Houston Rockets rank sixth in offensive rebounding, while the Dallas Mavericks rank eighth in defensive rebounding.
Houston averages a forced turnover rate of 15.7% this season, ranked second in the league. Dallas has an 8-10 record when they suffer a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
