NBA Odds: Rockets (even)
The Houston Rockets host a showdown against the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Toyota Center. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Monday, Feb. 23 and can be seen on FSN-N and ROOT-SW.
The Rockets played well in their last game, dismantling the Raptors 98-76 on Saturday. Corey Brewer played a pivotal role, recording his first double-double of the season with 26 points and 10 rebounds. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are coming off a 111-109 win against the Suns on Friday. Kevin Martin was the team’s top scorer, registering 28 points on 10-for-16 shooting.
The Rockets could dominate the offensive glass in this matchup, as they’re ranked fourth in the league in offensive rebound percentage at 27.8%. Alternatively, Minnesota ranks 26th in the NBA on the defensive backboards with a defensive rebound percentage of 72.8%.
The Rockets have emerged victorious in both games against the Timberwolves this year, escaping with a narrow 114-112 victory the last time these teams met. In the victory, James Harden led all scorers with 38 points.
The odds for Houston and Minnesota are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently not available. The Rockets have gone 37-18 Straight Up (SU) and 31-24 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 21-13 SU and 19-15 ATS against the Western Conference. The Rockets lead the NBA in three-point field goals, making 643 from beyond the arc (11.7 per game). Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, the Rockets prevent teams from making three-pointers on the defensive end, ranking first in the league with a .316 opponent field-goal percentage from three-point range. Houston’s defenders rank second in the NBA in steals with 9.7 per game. Houston is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 19.0 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Timberwolves have 12-42 SU and 23-29-2 ATS records. Despite having a losing record against the Western Conference, Minnesota is successful ATS in those games with a record of 9-4-1. The Timberwolves get to the line and convert their free throws at a high volume, ranking fifth in the league with 1,026 made (19.0 per game). The Timberwolves have controlled the offensive glass with an average of 12.2 per game, second in the league. One advantage for the Timberwolves could be Houston’s high fouls per game average of 22.7.
The Rockets’ win over Minnesota in their last game bumped their SU record to 7-3 over the Timberwolves in the last 10 meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record. Houston held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times, while Minnesota was never able to do so in their most recent 10 games.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Minnesota ranks 22nd in points per game with 97.8, while Houston ranks 15th in points allowed with an average of 99.6 given up.
Minnesota scores 99.1 points per away game, ranking 14th in the league. Houston allows just 95.0 points per home game (ranked third).
In its last game, Minnesota won by a margin of two points. Houston is 4-1 in games decided by three points or less. Minnesota has a 4-5 record in close games.
When opponents score fewer than 100 points, Minnesota has a split 6-6 record. When Houston is limited to under 100 points, it also has an even record (10-10).
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Timberwolves are just 6-36 this season. Houston is an outstanding 27-8 when registering triple digits.
The Timberwolves have an offensive rating of 99.9 (ranked 25th), while the Rockets rank fifth for their defensive rating of 99.8.
Houston has an average field goal percentage of 43.9%. Minnesota is an abysmal 9-38 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Houston Rockets rank lower for their field goal percentage (22nd) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (eighth), but the Minnesota Timberwolves have a better FG% ranking (23rd) than their EFF% ranking (28th).
The Houston Rockets rank 28th with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.32. The Minnesota Timberwolves have a higher A/TO (1.55), ranking 20th.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with just 41.3 per game. Ranked 15th, the Houston Rockets average 43.6 rebounds.
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank second in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 22nd in defensive rebounding.
Though Minnesota is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.3% (ranked eighth), Houston has a winning 22-13 record SU when it has a TOV% of 15.3% or greater.
