The Houston Rockets host Game 5 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals against the Dallas Mavericks at the Toyota Center. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Apr. 28 and can be seen on KTXA, ROOT-SW and TNT.
The Rockets are hoping for a better outcome after their 121-109 loss to the Mavericks on Sunday. James Harden was the team’s leading scorer with 24 points. Monta Ellis was the game’s top scorer, accounting for 31 points on 13-for-21 shooting.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for Houston’s offense, which ranks 28th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.9%). Dallas’s disruptive defense forces the fourth-most turnovers in the league (15.7%). Also, the Mavericks commit the fourth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.7%), while the disruptive defense of the Rockets causes the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.5%).
Houston is a five-point favorite against Dallas and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at 222 points. The Rockets come into this game 56-26 Straight Up (SU) and 48-34 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 8-8 SU and 9-7 ATS against divisional opponents. The Rockets lead the NBA in three-point field goals, making 933 from beyond the arc (11.4 per game). Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, the Rockets prevent teams from making three-pointers on the defensive end, ranking first in the league with a .322 opponent field-goal percentage from three-point range. Houston is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 18.9 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Mavericks have a record of 35-44-3 ATS and 50-32 SU. Against fellow division members, Dallas has a 7-9 SU and a 6-10 ATS record. Offensively, they average 105.2 points per game, which is good for third in the league. The Mavericks average 102.3 points allowed per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 112.0 points per game during that span. Dallas is the second-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 19.3 per game. One advantage for the Mavericks could be Houston’s high fouls per game average of 22.0.
The Mavericks’ win over Houston in their last clash wasn’t enough for them to overtake the Rockets in the recent head-to-head series. Their record is now 3-7 SU over the last 10 meetings. Furthermore, the Rockets hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. Houston held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers two times in the last 10 matchups. On the other side of the court, Dallas never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – DAL, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games.
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston’s last 9 games at home.
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas.
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston’s last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas.
Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston.
Houston scores an average of 103.9 points per game (ranked sixth). Dallas ranks 25th in points allowed per game with 102.3.
Dallas ranks fifth in points allowed per road game (102.2 PPG), while Houston ranks eighth in points per home game with 103.6.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Houston Rockets are a fantastic 35-4. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Dallas Mavericks have a poor record of 8-19.
Houston is 21-22 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Mavericks have a dazzling 42-13 record when they hit the century mark.
The Mavericks have a defensive rating of 103.8 (ranked 20th). The Rockets rank 12th for their offensive rating of 104.0.
Houston averages 100.0 possessions per game, scoring 1.040 points on each possession. While Dallas averages fewer possessions per game with 98.6, the team scores more points per possession with 1.067.
Houston is among the top-ranked teams based on its average effective field goal percentage of 51.2% (ranked seventh in the NBA). Dallas is a losing 11-24 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, the Dallas Mavericks make 22.5 assists per game and the Houston Rockets make 22.2. Dallas is ranked eighth, while Houston is ranked ninth.
Houston makes an average of 5.0 blocks per game (ranked 10th), while Dallas makes 4.5 blocks per game (ranked 20th).
Houston is ranked seventh in offensive rebounding. Dallas ranks 23rd in defensive rebounds.
The Dallas Mavericks rank 10th in steals, with an average of 8.1 per game. When the Houston Rockets allow at least 8 steals, they have a solid 36-21 record.
