While the Houston Rockets will surely need more time in order to evolve to an actual contender to the throne the Golden State Warriors hold, the anxious public will get a first glance on how close or how far apart are these two Western powerhouses on the opening night, when the teams meet in Oakland.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Spread: Golden State -9 (-115) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: over/under 232 (-110)
The Rockets look to make a statement
The Houston Rockets may have overachieved last season, making use of the evolution of the game that had suited their philosophy but wouldn’t be all too happy with it. The hardest thing to change in the NBA is a 50-win team. However, with the big prize in sight (even a distant one), the Rockets decided to break the mold and add Chris Paul. He instantly transforms the Rockets offensively, and it’s very reasonable to doubt if this version of Rockets would surpass the Harden-led team from a season ago. However, the Rockets would probably descend anyway, and the only really bad thing they get from adding Paul is the raised expectation. The mainstream media are going as high as placing them second-best in the league. This might happen, but there’s a lot these Rockets have to prove to affirm it.
Despite their activity over the summer, there’s a sense of an unfinished business in Houston. Management seemed eager to replace underwhelming Ryan Anderson at the stretch forward, so there was a lot of talk around bringing in Carmelo Anthony. This never materialized, but the Rockets don’t seem too deflated by it. They’ve gone 4-1 in the preseason games, with Harden particularly itching to get it going. Chris Paul had a minor knee issue, but he’ll be ready to play in this game, making Houston roster completely injury free to start the season with.
It’s no secret that the Rockets were a high-octane offensive team, mostly due to an enormous number of threes launched, so that’s unlikely to change much. They’ve set the new all-time record for threes attempted during one season for the second consecutive year – this streak will probably end now, although expect Chris Paul to adapt to Houston system more than the other way around. However, with Ryan Anderson on the margins and Lou Williams out of town, the Rockets have slightly less firepower this season, while also getting more D from their additions, Paul, Tucker and Mbah a Moute. Still, they aren’t going to turn into a 90s Pistons – you can expect close to the last year’s averages of 115.3 points scored and 109.6 points allowed per game.
Place: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
Date/Time: Tuesday, October 17th, 2017. 10:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
The Warriors looking down to the league
The champions return with a full roster, having signed all of their free agents. They have been ascended to the very pinnacle of the NBA, and rightfully so. Star players Curry, Durant, Green, and Thompson are happy, injury free and in their primes. On top of this, the Warriors style of basketball is currently trendsetting, so the rest of the league is playing catch-up on various accounts. The results of this dominance are two titles in three years, separated with a 73-win regular season that somehow didn’t end in jewelry for the newest NBA dynasty.
Considering that the Warriors failed to repeat the last time, they had an unexpectedly relaxed summer. It seemed like the players are enjoying the new-found stardom and the focus was on basketball. I don’t read too much into the preseason games, as there’s almost no interest in winning these, so it’s not the 2-2 preseason record. A trip to China and other off-court distractions for the players might be a bit detrimental. Of course, it’s really nitpicking, but with a team functioning as smoothly as the Warriors do, there aren’t many flaws to look at.
The Warriors have enjoyed relative health last season, with the only significant injury coming to Durant, at the right time, no less. That’s unless you count Kerr’s spine troubles during the playoffs. They come into the new season with Iguodala having some chronic back issues and a few players catching a virus. They should all be fine for the opener, except deep rotation guy Omri Casspi. Very few changes were made to the championship roster, so don’t expect results to change much either. The Warriors have had one of the best offenses and defenses in the league, winning by 11.6 points on average during the regular season.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors Game Trends & Prediction
The Houston Rockets had a great start against the spread last season, as their sustained success caught most of the market by surprise. The market gradually caught up, so the Rockets finished just with 42-40 ATS record for the season. The total points record followed the same path. Initially a prime bet for overs, the lines were set extremely high for the better part of the season. Houston finished with a 41-40-1 over/under record.
The Golden State has gone 40-39-3 against the spread over the course of the regular season last year, as the bookies did everything they could to fade them. The playoffs were a different story, so it’s highly likely that they’ll remain the favorite bet of the public. The over/under record is speaking of how overlooked Warriors’ defense is – the title holders have gone 32-50 in the 2016/17, despite scoring at historic rates.
This year, I decided to go even more transparent about my bets and will show you the real-time ranking for all the teams showcased here at you favorite betting place, through a unique ranking system – AdmiRank. This system helps you understand how good NBA teams are on a scale to 100. As you can see, both teams are good, but the Warriors are almost perfect.
In four meetings last season, the Golden State won comfortably three times, with an average margin of 11 points. In the lone Houston win, teams decided the winner after two extra periods. This game also marked the only Houston win in the last 12 matchups. The Warriors are a great team against any opponent, but the look to the past meetings reveals the obvious – the Rockets have never been that good against the teams who are naturally comfortable with playing at a high pace and can match their shooting. The defense that the champions play is making all the difference, so the visitors can hope to narrow this margin by improving that part of their game.
With both sides star loaded, this is a rare opportunity to play on either side and get true value, as they are likely to be public dears for the most part. Still, the bookies understand that there’s quite a large difference between the two sides, so the handicap for the Warriors isn’t easy to swallow. My numbers give the hosts 10 points of advantage for this meeting, a minor value that I wouldn’t go after even on smaller spreads.
Totals have been set slightly below what’s expected. It’s not uncommon for the books to be inaccurate at the beginning of the season, but I’m still going to wait for the full value here, as the market is surely going to be very active on the matchday and the changes are highly possible.
My Pick: no bet on the spread
Total: over 232 (-110)
