The Golden State Warriors (1-1) meet the Houston Rockets (1-1) at ORACLE Arena in game three of the Western Conference Finals. The game can be seen on TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 20, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 226.5 points with Golden State opening as a 7.5-point favorite.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Free Prediction
Durant led both teams with 38 points in game two, in which the Warriors lost 127-105, unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 232 points, which was 7 points above the projected point total of 225 points. The Rockets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.0 vs. 19.6) and had a better turnover percentage (11.5 vs. 13.7).
This matchup pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Golden State ranks second in offensive efficiency and Houston ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Rockets rank fourth in turnover percentage (12.8 percent), while the Warriors rank 23rd in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.1 percent).
Houston holds records of 74-20 straight up (SU) and 48-44-2 against the spread (ATS). Rockets games have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (55.3 percent).
Golden State has a phenomenal 67-27 SU record, but they struggle covering the spread (39-52-3 ATS). Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Warriors games, with an even split between overs and unders.
In the playoffs, the Rockets are 1-4 ATS with four unders and one over while the Warriors are 14-10 with 14 unders, nine overs and one push
Chris Paul has averaged 25.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Houston.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 27-17-1 ATS on the road with 27 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
At home, Golden State is 18-27-2 ATS with 23 overs, 23 unders and 1 push.
When allowing below 100 points, Houston is 36-3 and Golden State is 19-5.
The Rockets are 71-15 when they reach the century mark, while the Warriors are 63-17.
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.1) while Houston ranks 27th (21.4).
The Rockets average 8.5 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
Houston ranks sixth in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (13.4).
The Rockets average 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Warriors rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.1).
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.0) while Houston ranks 17th (11.2).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (42.0) while the Warriors rank 16th (29.1).
Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.2) while Houston ranks 13th (4.9).
The Warriors rank 21st in points in the paint per game (43.5) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.6, up from 8.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 111.0 points per game (2.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (2.5 above their season average).
+++++
