The Los Angeles Clippers will travel to the Toyota Center to face the Houston Rockets in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Action begins at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday, May 17.
The Rockets enter this game hoping for similar success after topping the Clippers 119-107 on Thursday. Dwight Howard was a key piece, recording his 23rd double-double of the season with 20 points and 21 rebounds. Los Angeles still lost despite the best efforts of Chris Paul, who recorded his 40th double-double of the season with 31 points and 11 assists.
The physical Rockets offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this one. They rank second in the league at getting to the line (free throw attempt rate of 31.2), while Los Angeles is among the NBA’s most foul-prone teams (giving up a 29th-ranked free throw attempt rate of 31.2). Also, the Clippers commit the second-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.1%), while the disruptive defense of the Rockets causes the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.5%).
Los Angeles is a slim one-point favorite over Houston. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 219 points for this matchup. The Rockets have gone 56-26 Straight Up (SU) and 48-34 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 33-19 SU and 30-22 ATS against the Western Conference. The Rockets lead the NBA in three-point field goals, making 933 from beyond the arc (11.4 per game). Houston is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 18.9 points per game.
In the other locker room, the Clippers have 56-26 SU and 38-44 ATS records. Against the Western Conference, Los Angeles is 37-15 SU and 24-28 ATS. Offensively, they average 106.7 points per game, which is good for second in the league. The Clippers are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, leading the NBA at 2.10.
In their previous meeting this season, Houston beat Los Angeles, bringing the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the last 10 meetings. With a 6-4 record, the Clippers have the advantage ATS. In these last 10 matchups, Los Angeles held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers two times, with Houston controlling all three of these areas one time.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games.
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Houston’s last 13 games at home.
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing LA Clippers.
Houston is 6-14 SU in their last 20 games when playing LA Clippers.
Houston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers.
Houston ranks sixth in points per game with 103.9, while Los Angeles ranks 16th in points allowed with an average of 100.1 given up.
On average, Houston scores 103.6 points per home game (ranked eighth). Los Angeles ranks 20th in points allowed per road game with 102.3.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Houston Rockets are a stellar 35-4. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Los Angeles Clippers have a poor record of 8-14.
Houston is 21-22 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Clippers have a formidable 48-12 record when they hit the century mark.
The Clippers have a defensive rating of 102.7 (ranked 16th). The Rockets rank 12th for their offensive rating of 104.0.
The Houston Rockets average 100.0 possessions per game and 1.040 points per possession, while the Los Angeles Clippers earn fewer possessions (97.5) but more points per possession (1.095).
The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking second in the league with an EFF% of 53.3%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Houston Rockets have an abysmal 3-14 record.
On average, Houston attempts 32.7 three pointers and Los Angeles attempts 26.9 per game. Both teams have winning records when they have 25 or more three point attempts. The Rockets sit at 53-24 and the Clippers are 37-16.
Los Angeles ranks at the top of the league with an assist to turnover ratio of 2.10. Houston ranks 27th with an A/TO of 1.39.
The Houston Rockets rebound 43.7 times per game and are ranked 14th. Ranked 20th, the Los Angeles Clippers rebound 42.6 times per game.
The Los Angeles Clippers rank 28th in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 18th in defensive rebounding.
Houston ranks fifth in forced turnovers with an average rate of 15.5%. Los Angeles has a 4-6 record when they suffer a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
