Incredibly but the Memphis Grizzlies and the visiting Houston Rockets meet for the fourth and final time this season, even though the season is just a month old. They met twice early on, and Grizzlies had their way to with both by the stingy defense. Last time, the Rockets took control and had the game played at their own style to win. It’s safe to say that a team that takes charge will probably win as two rivals play such a contrasting styles, so let’s find out who has a better chance to do so.
Rockets at Grizzlies
Spread: Houston -6 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 212 points (-110)
Paul returns, the Rockets put on a show against the Suns
The growing pains that are going to hit the Rockets new lineup were put on a hold on Thursday, as they face the sorry Suns who were not a match. Paul or no Paul, the Rockets would have steamrolled over the Suns, so we’ll have to see how it pans out in this game.
The 142- 116 victory in Phoenix was a symphony of good offense. There was little resistance, yet it was nice to watch. Anxious to play, Chris Paul played like a maestro, dishing out 8 assists in the first half, and the shots were falling from all over the place. The Rockets set two franchise records for points scored – 45 points was the most they ever put in the first period, and 90 points at halftime was also franchise first (and done just three times in NBA history). James Harden scored 48 points effortlessly, repeatedly getting calls and camping on the free throw line. Ryan Anderson hit 6 threes to go for 24 points and Chris Paul double-doubled with 11 points and 10 assists. The Rockets shot 47.8 percent from the field, but 21 of their field goals were from beyond the three-point arc, and they also enjoyed 35-of-38 night from the charity stripe. Needless to say, it was a game played at a hectic pace, and the numerous free throws may have been officials breathing breaks. Defensively, the Rockets didn’t do much, giving up a 42 point quarter themselves, and showing little interest in any resistance at the rim. The Suns scored 64 points in the paint, mostly from point-blank range.
Chris Paul was capped at 20 minutes for the Suns game, and ended up playing 22. He admitted that he was gassed after the game, and it doesn’t come to much surprise as the pace was really quick. The Grizzlies play much slower, but also with much more contact, so his conditioning will once again be put up for a test. Mbah a Moute was held out of the previous game with an illness and it is uncertain if he will play against the Grizzlies.
Place: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Date/Time: Saturday, November 18th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSE
The Grizzlies lose third in a row, can’t fix defense
The Memphis Grizzlies never led Wednesday night while dropping its third game in a row, this time to Indiana 113-116. The Grizzlies fell behind 53-67 at halftime and trailed by as many as 17 points. The most troubling thing though, there was no sign of any resistance on the defensive end, as the Grizzlies grit and grind quickly falling to a distant memory.
The Pacers scored at least 30 points in each of the first three quarters, playing with ease offensively as if they were participating in a carefree practice. It was a complete lack of focus and lack of effort, so it’s hard to pin the loss on anyone in particular. Indy players drove past the first lines of defense with ease, putting Gasol and the interior players under too much of a pressure. Indiana connected on 20 of their first 34 shots and seven of their first 11 three-point attempts. Memphis charged back with defensive intensity and a sense of urgency late but couldn’t complete the comeback as has been the case too often lately. The offense has had issues as well. Conley simply can’t get by people with his Achilles’ injury and is settling for long threes on switches. Parsons, playing a more prominent role in the Grizzlies offense this year, especially in the fourth quarter, takes 61 percent of his attempts from three-point territory. Conley takes 46 percent from there. Neither player is playing their game, and it’s hurting the Grizzlies.
The leg issues might force Conley to sit out a period of time. He’s not on his level in the last two weeks, and the Grizzlies are run by him and by Gasol. His absence would be huge for a matchup with Harden, but even if he plays, he might not be able to put up a good fight playing with limited motion and pain.
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies Game Trends & Prediction
The Rockets covered the spread comfortably, even as a double-digit away favorite, improving to 9-7 this season. They are 6-3 on the road, and 1-2 against the Grizz. With 7 overs in the least nine games, the Rockets finally caught up with the totals the books have been challenging them with – they are 8-8 against the over/under so far.
The Grizzlies have started the season strong and flashed us with some cash flow, but have not played to the expectations recently. They’ve covered only twice in the last 8 games, and not a single time in the three losses last week. This has dragged their ATS record to 6-8, exactly half of which had come in FedEx Forum. They are still managing to maintain the value on the under side with 5-8 O/U record, and have held the Rockets to all three unders in this season’s meetings.
Admi-Rank: The Rockets bounced back nicely to the broken win streak, and have been pointing up with their confidence. The Grizzlies couldn’t keep up with the expectations, due to injuries or something else, but are clearly on a steady slide.
Memphis enjoyed a 5-1 start with two wins versus Houston and one against the mighty Warriors, but followed with losses to the Lakers, Dallas and 0-4 versus the East, so it’s clearly not the same team as of late. They have to hit a reset button and while it’s a hard decision to make, I can see them sitting Conley in this game.
The books are also quite sure that he won’t dress, setting the Rockets as a 6-point away favorite in Memphis. Yes, it’s quite a low price on the visiting team, but everything is pointing towards their success, and the books are hoping to push away as many pros as possible by fading them. Obviously, I’m not going to hunt the winners and ignore negative value, but I’m not taking the Grizzlies either. Instead, I’m turning to over points. The total has been set to 212, which would be high for this matchup if it was a common game. The Grizzlies haven’t been able to force their will lately, and the Rockets are smoking hot, so they’ll simply force thing into a fast-paced game with a lot of fouls. My only concern is that the Grizzlies would not score enough, but then again, their bench unit is certainly capable of driving the score up should the starters be pulled for a blowout.
My Pick: (no spread wager here)
Total: Over 212 points (-110)
