A shootout should be expected when the New Orleans Pelicans (26-21) and the Houston Rockets (34-12) face off at Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 26, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Houston opened as a 3-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 229.5 points.
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans Free Prediction
The Rockets come in on a high note after topping the Dallas Mavericks in their last contest, 104-97. Houston’s 8.9 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Dallas, who had a mark of 12.6. The Rockets’ mark was better than their season average of 12.9. With 25 points on 9-for-16 shooting, James Harden was Houston’s high scorer.
In the Pelicans’ last game, they defeated the Charlotte Hornets, 101-96. New Orleans held the Hornets to an effective field goal percentage of 0.459 (below the 0.525 mark opponents have averaged against New Orleans this season). Charlotte, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.7 vs. 17.0). With 16 points, 13 rebounds and five assists, DeMarcus Cousins played well for New Orleans.
The upper-echelon offense of New Orleans (third in the league with an effective field goal percentage 0.548) will battle against the porous defense of Houston (24th in effective field goal percentage allowed 0.533). The Pelicans should have the edge on that end of the court.
Houston heads into the contest with records of 34-12 straight up (SU) and 23-22-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Rockets games, with 24 unders compared to 21 overs.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 26-21 SU and 25-22 ATS. Of the Pelicans’ 47 games, 28 have finished over the O/U total.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Jrue Holiday led both teams with 37 points in the first game, in which the Pelicans lost 130-123 but covered as 14-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 253 points, which was 26 points above the projected point total of 227 points. Houston had a much better free throw rate (0.193 vs. 0.082). New Orleans, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (15.8 vs. 10.3).
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 13-9 ATS on the road with 14 unders, 7 overs and 1 push.
New Orleans is 10-12 ATS at home with 16 overs and 6 unders.
Houston is 16-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while New Orleans is 8-1.
When scoring over 100 points, the Pelicans are 24-14 and the Rockets are 33-9.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (43.3) while New Orleans ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (31.4).
The Pelicans average 50.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks second in the league. The Rockets rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.4).
Houston ranks third in steals per game (9.0) while New Orleans ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
The Rockets average 18.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Pelicans rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.0).
Houston ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while New Orleans ranks 21st (43.9).
The Pelicans rank second in assists per game (26.3) while the Rockets rank 16th (22.3).
New Orleans ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Houston ranks 17th (5.0).
The Rockets average 11.1 fast break points per game, which ranks 14th in the league. The Pelicans rank 26th in fast break points allowed per game (13.5).
Houston averages 11.9 second chance points per game, which ranks 18th in the league. New Orleans ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 5 unders.
New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.2, down from 7.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (3.6 below their season average).
