The Indianapolis Colts (9-4) meet the Houston Texans (7-6) looking to lengthen their three-game winning streak. This game will feature the NFL’s leading passer, Andrew Luck (4,305 yards, 36 TDs), and third-leading receiver, T.Y. Hilton (1,295 yards, 7 TDs). Winners of four of their last five, Indianapolis comes into this game hoping to continue their recent success. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on CBS.
The Colts beat the Texans 33-28 in their last meeting. That Week 6 game marked four straight wins for Indianapolis against Houston, going back to the 2012 season. Hilton had a standout performance the last time they met, hauling in nine receptions for 223 yards and one TD. Luck had a big game as well, totaling 370 yards and three TDs through the air. Arian Foster had a great outing on the ground for Houston in that game, running the ball 20 times for 109 yards and two TDs.
The Texans are a six-point underdog against the Colts and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is 49 points. The Colts enter the game with records of 9-4 both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In their five most recent matchups, the Colts went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. A focal point of Indianapolis’s offense is the passing game, where they rank first in the league with 321.9 passing yards per game. Turning to the Colts defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. Don’t expect Houston to have much success throwing the ball against the Colts. The Texans average 197.3 passing yards per game on the road, 28th in the NFL. The Colts may rely on Houston’s special teams as a means for extra yardage in this week’s clash. Out of all teams, the Texans are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to return yards given up, with 102.5 allowed per game.
On the other side, the Texans have 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS records this season. Over their last five games, the Texans have a SU and ATS record of 3-2 for those betting with them. If earlier games are any indication, the Texans will pound the rock on offense. They average 173.3 rushing yards per road game, good enough for first in the NFL. Shifting to the other side of the ball, the Houston defense can dominate if they take advantage of some favorable matchups. The Colts will need to be mindful of Indianapolis’s ability to take the ball away. The Texans defense averages 2.2 turnovers per game, the most of any team in the league. The Texans will look to put the ball in the end zone against an Indianapolis defense that allows an average of seven points in the third quarter of home games, one of the worst marks in the league. It won’t be a shocker if Indianapolis is heavily penalized in this week’s matchup. During home games, the Colts average 67.9 penalty yards, making them one of the worst in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – IND, ATS Winner – IND, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indianapolis’s last 15 games.
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games.
Houston is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games when playing Indianapolis.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 8 games when playing Houston.
Houston is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games when playing Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Houston.
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing at home against Houston.
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
Houston is 5-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Indianapolis is 8-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Houston is 7-0 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Indianapolis is 8-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Houston is 6-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and only 1-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
This season, Indianapolis is only 5-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Indianapolis defense has forced an average of 2.0 turnovers per game this season, but Houston is 6-3 SU when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
Dating back to last year, Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 SU against AFC South opponents, while Houston is 4-6 SU against divisional foes.
When it comes to passing this season, Indianapolis is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its top-ranked passing attack will face the 28th-ranked pass defense of Houston, while its 22nd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 24th-ranked passing game of the Texans.
Houston is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its fourth-ranked rushing attack will face the 13th-ranked run defense of Indianapolis, while its 15th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 18th-ranked run game of the Colts.
Houston has given up 20.0 points per game this year, which is ranked eighth in the league. Indianapolis has scored 31.3 points per game this year and is ranked second overall.
Indianapolis has allowed 18.9 points per contest at home this year, which is ranked 10th in the NFL. The Houston offense has averaged 23.9 points per game on the road (ranked ninth overall).
