The No. 14-ranked Maryland Terrapins (23-6) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (13-16) finish out the regular season when they face off at Xfinity Center. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 3 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Terrapins lost to Purdue 83-79 the last time they played. Melo Trimble was the team’s leading scorer with 19 points. The Fighting Illini are coming off an 84-71 win against Minnesota in their last outing. Malcolm Hill had a good game, accounting for 22 points, seven rebounds, and five assists.
Scoring opportunities from the charity stripe may be sporadic for the Fighting Illini in this one. They’re 293rd in the nation in FTA rate (32.1), while Maryland is among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (yielding a rate of 26.8, ranking 14th overall).
The Terrapins are hoping to build on their records of 23-6 Straight Up (SU) and 12-15-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Below-average play has been the norm lately for the Terrapins. In the last 10 games, Maryland has only averaged 69.8 points per game compared to the 76.2 they’ve averaged on the season. The Terrapins are an incredibly accurate shooting team with a .490 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. Transitioning to the Maryland defense, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Terrapins. The 65.6 points that Maryland’s defense allows per game makes them the 31st-ranked defense in the country. Maryland’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Terrapins allow a .403 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country. An area where the Terrapins are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.8 blocks per game, sixth in Division I.
On the other side, the Fighting Illini have 13-16 SU and 12-12-3 ATS records. The Fighting Illini convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 36th in the nation at .739. Illinois has not committed many turnovers, averaging only 10.4 per game.
This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time the conference foes played, Illinois won, bringing the head-to-head record to an even 3-3 SU. On the other hand, Maryland holds the advantage ATS with a record of 4-2.
Predictions: SU Winner – MD, ATS Winner – MD
Notes
“Maryland is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games “.
“Maryland is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home”.
“Maryland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Illinois”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Maryland’s last 6 games when playing Illinois”.
“Maryland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Illinois”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois’s last 6 games when playing Maryland”.
Maryland sits at 11-5 SU against the conference, while Illinois is struggling at 5-11 SU.
Illinois scores an average of just 72.7 points per game (ranked 151st). Maryland ranks 31st in points allowed, giving up 65.6 points per game.
Illinois scores just 69.6 points per away game (ranked 145th). Maryland ranks 40th in points allowed at home, giving up 63.4 points.
The Maryland Terrapins have a defensive rating of 98.0 (ranked 45th), while the Illinois Fighting Illini have an offensive rating of 104.4 (ranked 206th).
The Maryland Terrapins have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking 13th in the nation with a FG% of 49.0%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Illinois Fighting Illini are winless with a 0-8 record.
The Maryland Terrapins rank higher based on their field goal percentage (13th) than their effective field goal percentage (17th). The Illinois Fighting Illini rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (180th) than their field goal percentage (225th).
Illinois ranks 51st in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.30. Maryland is ranked lower at 169th with an A/TO of 1.07.
Illinois ranks 341st in offensive rebounds, while Maryland ranks at 78th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Illinois forces a turnover rate of 19.1%. When Maryland turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a stellar 12-3 record.
