The No. 5-ranked Michigan State Spartans (14-1) can extend a 10-game home winning streak when they take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-7). Action starts at 9:00 pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 7 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Spartans beat Minnesota 69-61 in their last matchup. Matt Costello was a key piece, recording 17 points and 15 rebounds to notch his third double-double this season. The Fighting Illini, meanwhile, are coming off a close 75-73 loss at the hands of Ohio State in their last outing. Jalen Coleman-Lands led the team in scoring with 14 points.
When evaluating eFG%, the Spartans could have a healthy advantage on offense. They’re ranked 27th in the nation in that category at 55.3%, while the porous defense of Illinois is ranked 325th in eFG% defense, allowing opponents to connect at a rate of 53.7% this year. The Fighting Illini should also expect to protect the ball well. They rank fifth at avoiding errors (TO% of 14.5%). Conversely, the Spartans force the fifth-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ TO% of 14.4%).
Michigan State is a substantial 13-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 146 points. The Spartans have gone 14-1 Straight Up (SU) and 8-6 Against The Spread (ATS). The Spartans are an incredibly accurate shooting team with a .487 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The rebounding edge goes to the Spartans in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 43.5 boards per game. Michigan State is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.68. Turning to the defensive side, the Michigan State defense has been very good, only giving up 61.3 points per game. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Spartans, who allow a field goal percentage of only .360. An area where the Spartans are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.8 blocks per game, 13th in Division I.
Over on the other bench, Illinois has a SU record of 8-7 and an ATS record of 5-5-3. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Fighting Illini. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.43. The Fighting Illini are one of the top defensive teams on the road, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 67.5 points allowed per away game.
Michigan State and Illinois will be squaring off for the first time this season. In their most recent meeting a season ago, Michigan State came out on top, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record over their most recent games (5-5). On the other hand, Illinois leads the matchup ATS with a record of 7-2-1. Michigan State held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once, while Illinois was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – MSU, ATS Winner – MSU, O/U – Under
Notes
Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Michigan State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State’s last 7 games.
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games at home.
Michigan State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Illinois.
Michigan State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Illinois.
Michigan State is even against Big Ten Conference teams (1-1), but Illinois has lost all of its games against the conference (0-2).
Illinois scores an average of just 75.7 points per game (ranked 144th). Michigan State ranks 13th in points allowed, giving up 61.3 points per game.
Illinois scores just 66.0 points per away game (ranked 240th). Michigan State ranks 12th in points allowed at home, giving up 56.1 points.
The Michigan State Spartans have a defensive rating of 90.8 (ranked 14th), while the Illinois Fighting Illini have an offensive rating of 108.5 (ranked 111th).
The Illinois Fighting Illini average a field goal percentage of 44.7% this season. The Michigan State Spartans have a winning 2-1 record in games where opponents have a FG% of 44.7% or greater.
The Illinois Fighting Illini rank lower for their field goal percentage (144th) than their effective field goal percentage (106th), while the Michigan State Spartans rank the same for both metrics (27th).
The Michigan State Spartans rank second in assists per game with an average of 21.0. The Illinois Fighting Illini are among the worst in the country with 14.5 assists per game (ranked 122nd).
Michigan State, the 13th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 5.8 per game. Illinois ranks lower at 318th with 2.1.
Michigan State ranks 81st in offensive rebounding. Illinois ranks 275th in defensive rebounding.
Illinois makes an average of 5.6 steals per game. Michigan State has an outstanding 11-1 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
