The Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) aren’t traveling far to battle their Big 10 nemesis No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. The opening kickoff for this game is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and BTN has the TV rights.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Northwestern is getting picked as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 18 points. If they are wanting to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to put up $1,500 in order to win $100 back on the Wildcats (-1500). The Fighting Illini are getting +810 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 58 points. Some good live betting scenarios could exist during the game.
The game’s O/U has swung down after opening at 58.5. The original line (-18) has yet to change.
The Fighting Illini have gained 0.9 units this season and are 4-7 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-4. The Wildcats have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors in 2018, gaining 8.9 units. They’re 6-4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Fighting Illini have gone only 4-7 straight up (SU), including 2-6 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 7-4 SU overall and 7-1 SU in conference play.
Northwestern enters this matchup on a two-game losing streak while Illinois has won its last two in a row. The Fighting Illini are trying to get back on track after a 63-0 shutout to Iowa last weekTheir defense allowed the Hawkeyes to eat up the clock by running for 203 yards on 37 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Mekhi Sargent logged a productive day for the Hawkeyes in that one with 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts. Offensively, AJ Bush completed just 12-of-28 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. Ra’Von Bonner (111 yards on 21 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Bush (18 yards on 12 carries) led the running attack in the loss. Ricky Smalling (three receptions, 27 yards) and Sam Mays (three catches, 24 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Northwestern just earned a 24-14 win over Minnesota. The defensive unit allowed the Golden Gophers to rush for 109 yards on 35 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Mohamed Ibrahim was a bright spot in the loss for Minnesota, accounting for 98 rushing yards and a score on 20 attempts. For Northwestern, Clayton Thorson completed 15-of-21 passes for 230 yards. Isaiah Bowser (85 rushing yards on 29 attempts, two TDs) handled the ground game in the win while Riley Lees (four receptions, 48 yards) and Bennett Skowronek (two catches, 44 yards) led the receiving corps.
Illinois has run the ball on 61.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has a rush percentage of 48.3 percent. The Fighting Illini have rushed for 252 yards per game (including 256 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 25 scores via handoffs this year. The Wildcats are putting up 101 rush yards per game (103 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
The Fighting Illini offense has averaged 155 yards in the air overall (151 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 249 pass yards per outing (238.3 in the Big 10) and have 12 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Illinois has allowed opponents to run for an average of 244 yards and pass for 277 yards per game. The Northwestern defense has given up 234.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 132.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.97 to opponents, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 7.53 ANY/A.
Offensively, Bush is up to 1,006 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 54 percent of his 153 attempts with five passing scores and seven interceptions. Bush has a 4.28 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at -0.02 over the past two outings.
The Fighting Illini will likely try to control the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to AJ Bush (zero receiving yards), Ra’Von Bonner (309 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Reggie Corbin (948 rush yards, nine rush TDs, 120 receiving yards) have brought significant production to the offensive scheme for Illinois.
In the home locker room, Clayton Thorson has connected on 224-of-368 passes for 2,443 yards, 11 TDs and 10 INTs. Thorson’s ANY/A sits at 5.20 for the season and 4.47 across his past two games.
The Wildcats also prefer to rely on their backfield. In addition to Isaiah Bowser (six receiving yards), Bennett Skowronek (461 receiving yards and one receiving TD) and JJ Jefferson (-3 rush yards, 188 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten plenty of looks lately.
When these two schools faced one another a year ago, Northwestern won by five touchdowns 42-7.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats
SU Winner – Northwestern, ATS Winner – Northwestern, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Illinois defense has 20 sacks on the year while Northwestern has 17.
The Northwestern offense has lost two fumbles in 2018 while Illinois has lost 10.
Both passing attacks have produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Fighting Illini have have made nine pass plays of 30+ yards while the Wildcats have accounted for 11 such plays.
The Illinois defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Northwestern has given up six such plays.
The Illinois offense has created 28 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Northwestern has created eight such runs.
The Fighting Illini defense has allowed 25 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up 14 such runs.
The O/U for Northwestern’s last outing was set at 48.5. The under cashed in that 24-14 victory over Minnesota.
Over its last three matchups, Northwestern is 2-0-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three contests, Illinois is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Illinois has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 24-point victory over Minnesota on November 3rd accounting for the only win over that span.
Northwestern has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a -10-point loss to Notre Dame on November 3rd accounting for its only slip-up over that stretch.
The O/U for Illinois’ previous game going into it was 59.5. The over cashed in the team’s 63-0 defeat to Iowa.
As a team, Illinois has averaged 7.6 yards per carry across its past three contests and 5.8 over its last two.
Northwestern has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.
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